AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Jaguars have won 45 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 47.9. Luck cost them 2.9 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+4.0 wins), the unluckiest 2021 (−2.4).
2026: 6–2 so far, replay wins 6.3 (−0.3 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–2 | 6.3 | −0.3 | 2–2 | −0.77 | – |
| 2025 | 13–4 | 9.0 | +4.0 | 6–3 | +0.54 | 0–1 |
| 2024 | 4–13 | 4.9 | −0.9 | 3–10 | −0.25 | – |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 10.0 | −1.0 | 3–4 | +0.33 | – |
| 2022 | 9–8 | 10.0 | −1.0 | 4–6 | +0.19 | 1–1 |
| 2021 | 3–14 | 5.4 | −2.4 | 2–4 | +0.51 | – |
| 2020 | 1–15 | 3.3 | −2.3 | 1–6 | −0.52 | – |
| 2019 | 6–10 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 2–3 | −1.26 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +4.0 | +0.25 | +0.21 | −0.88 | +0.27 | +0.49 | +0.29 |
| 2024 | −0.9 | +0.18 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.50 | −0.24 |
| 2023 | −1.0 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.09 | +0.17 | +0.08 | −0.06 |
| 2022 | −1.0 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.64 | +0.09 | +0.46 | −0.18 |
| 2021 | −2.4 | −0.56 | +0.26 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.48 | −0.51 |
| 2020 | −2.3 | −0.02 | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.32 |
| 2019 | +0.8 | −0.15 | +0.89 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.10 | −0.06 |
| Since 2019 | −2.9 | −0.25 | +1.35 | −1.53 | −0.23 | +1.05 | −1.07 |
Are the Jaguars lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Jaguars have won 45 regular-season games from play worth 47.9: −2.9 wins of luck, the 13th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Jaguars had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from drops (−1.5 wins) and 3rd & 4th downs (−1.1 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 21–36 since 2019, where the replays give them 21.9 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Jaguars’ luckiest season?
2025: 13–4 from play worth 9.0 wins, +4.0 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2021: 3–14 from play worth 5.4 (−2.4).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Jaguars’ luckiest wins
Wins the Jaguars take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
The Jaguars’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Jaguars would win most often in a replay.
