luckadjusted

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars: how lucky, season by season

Since 2019, the Jaguars have won 45 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 47.6. Luck cost them 2.6 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+4.4 wins), the unluckiest 2021 (−2.5).

2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 1.4 (−0.4 luck). 2026 game by game

Luck in wins, by season

Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.

SeasonRecordReplay winsLuckOne-scoreCalls, pts per gamePlayoffs
2026 1–1 1.4 −0.4 0–1 +0.94 –
2025 13–4 8.6 +4.4 6–3 +0.77 0–1
2024 4–13 5.4 −1.4 3–10 −0.14 –
2023 9–8 9.7 −0.7 3–4 +2.56 –
2022 9–8 9.7 −0.7 4–6 +0.53 1–1
2021 3–14 5.5 −2.5 2–4 +0.57 –
2020 1–15 3.3 −2.3 1–6 −1.33 –
2019 6–10 5.4 +0.6 2–3 −2.00 –

Luckiest wins

Wins the Jaguars take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2023 Week 5 @ Bills W 25–20 14% +86
2019 Week 4 @ Broncos W 26–24 15% +85
2022 Week 12 vs Ravens W 28–27 20% +80
2025 Week 9 @ Raiders W 30–29 23% +77
2019 Week 15 @ Raiders W 20–16 25% +75

Unluckiest losses

Losses the Jaguars would win most often in a replay.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2024 Week 2 vs Browns L 13–18 91% −91
2022 Week 6 @ Colts L 27–34 75% −75
2023 Week 18 @ Titans L 20–28 70% −70
2021 Week 15 vs Texans L 16–30 69% −69
2022 Week 5 vs Texans L 6–13 69% −69

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