luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Colts at Jaguars, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 37–34, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 1.8 points to the Jaguars.

The Jaguars won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): C. Little made 49-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 34
Jacksonville Jaguars 37

October 6, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +74 Jaguars very lucky · −74 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 IND 40 JAX 7
  2. 2 IND 30 JAX 7
  3. 3 IND 30 JAX 13
  4. 4 IND 31 JAX 17
  5. 5 IND 27 JAX 17
  6. 6 IND 34 JAX 28
  7. 7 IND 30 JAX 28
  8. 8 IND 24 JAX 27
  9. 9 IND 37 JAX 45
  10. 10 IND 27 JAX 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Jaguars won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.

38 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.24 +0.06 better by 0.18
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.36 +0.09 worse by 0.27
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.36 +0.05 better by 0.30
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.24 +0.10 worse by 0.14

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 74% of them, Jaguars 26%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+32.2%
Colts by 9–1618.8%
Colts by 1–822.7%
Level after regulation2.2%
Jaguars by 1–812.5%
Jaguars by 9–167.6%
Jaguars by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 5.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Little, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Little, 49 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:54 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:51 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q2 0:15 The Colts fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% JAX IND: End of half
4 Q3 2:53 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 15:00 The Colts converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:54 Face Mask on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1670 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +13% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 8:06 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 0:21 C. Little made 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +15% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Freeland (IND T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 15% · Jaguars 85%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
2.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 74% · Jaguars 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Colts · Jaguars

More from Week 5 2024