luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Packers at Rams, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Rams 24–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.9 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:12 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 28 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Green Bay Packers 24
Los Angeles Rams 19

October 6, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +33 Packers lucky · −33 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Rams win 3.

  1. 1 GB 37 LA 13
  2. 2 GB 30 LA 12
  3. 3 GB 17 LA 3
  4. 4 GB 27 LA 16
  5. 5 GB 42 LA 34
  6. 6 GB 17 LA 13
  7. 7 GB 28 LA 26
  8. 8 GB 10 LA 13
  9. 9 GB 23 LA 30
  10. 10 GB 20 LA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 67% of them, Rams 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+18.2%
Packers by 9–1621.3%
Packers by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Rams by 1–818.6%
Rams by 9–169.2%
Rams by 17+4.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 3.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:26 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:51 The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:49 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% GB LA: Punt
4 Q2 2:12 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +28% LA GB: Field goal
5 Q2 0:02 B. Narveson made 46-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before +7% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:15 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% GB LA: Punt
7 Q4 1:57 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% LA LA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:05 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +19% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Puka Nacua (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Tre'Davious White (LA CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Steve Avila (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 91% · Rams 9%

Final margin
Packers by 5
Luck in points
1.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 67% · Rams 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Packers · Rams

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