luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Browns at Commanders, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Browns 34–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 59% favorites.

Final

Cleveland Browns 13
Washington Commanders 34

October 6, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −3

Luck index +1 Commanders about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 10 WAS 15
  2. 2 CLE 10 WAS 20
  3. 3 CLE 3 WAS 16
  4. 4 CLE 13 WAS 29
  5. 5 CLE 6 WAS 24
  6. 6 CLE 9 WAS 31
  7. 7 CLE 3 WAS 27
  8. 8 CLE 8 WAS 36
  9. 9 CLE 6 WAS 38
  10. 10 CLE 13 WAS 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Commanders 99%. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.2%
Browns by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.3%
Commanders by 1–82.7%
Commanders by 9–1610.2%
Commanders by 17+85.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 21, without the luck Commanders by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 9 for 52 yards, Commanders 5 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:02 Fair Catch Interference on the Browns (Mike Ford), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.1 pts
Q2 14:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 6:39 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 5:16 Illegal Shift on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.2 pts
Q2 4:09 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 3 yards +1% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.1 pts
Q2 0:24 False Start on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.2 pts
Q3 13:41 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 12:15 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q3 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Jeremy Reaves), 10 yards 0% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 1:01 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Dorance Armstrong Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts
Q4 9:21 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Jer'Zhan Newton), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.4 pts
Q4 7:45 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.5 pts
Q4 2:36 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% WAS CLE: Punt
2 Q1 9:14 The Commanders converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% WAS WAS: Turnover
3 Q1 6:21 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% WAS CLE: Punt
4 Q2 14:04 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +5% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 13:13 D. Hopkins made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 34 of 47 from 45+ before +6% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q2 13:02 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q2 6:39 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedDefensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:54 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Clelin Ferrell (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Bell (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 1% · Commanders 99%

Final margin
Commanders by 21
Luck in points
8.9 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Commanders 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Browns · Commanders

More from Week 5 2024