luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Browns at Commanders, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Browns 34–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:14 left): the Commanders converted 3rd & 13, worth 16 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Cleveland Browns 13
Washington Commanders 34

October 6, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −3

Luck index +1 Commanders about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 24 WAS 27
  2. 2 CLE 23 WAS 31
  3. 3 CLE 24 WAS 36
  4. 4 CLE 14 WAS 30
  5. 5 CLE 23 WAS 41
  6. 6 CLE 17 WAS 39
  7. 7 CLE 9 WAS 35
  8. 8 CLE 10 WAS 40
  9. 9 CLE 3 WAS 38
  10. 10 CLE 3 WAS 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Commanders 99%. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.0%
Browns by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.2%
Commanders by 1–82.9%
Commanders by 9–169.0%
Commanders by 17+87.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 11.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% WAS CLE: Punt
2 Q1 9:14 The Commanders converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +16% WAS WAS: Turnover
3 Q1 7:38 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% CLE WAS: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:21 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% WAS CLE: Punt
5 Q1 3:29 The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:13 D. Hopkins made 51-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 34 of 47 from 45+ before +6% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q2 13:02 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q2 6:39 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedDefensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Clelin Ferrell (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Bell (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 1% · Commanders 99%

Final margin
Commanders by 21
Luck in points
9.3 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Commanders 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Browns · Commanders

More from Week 5 2024