Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024
Bills at Texans, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Bills 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10. The Bills had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Bills.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 31 points of win probability to the Bills.
Final
 Buffalo Bills | 20 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Texans about even · −18 Bills
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bills win 2, Texans win 8.
- 1 BUF 33 HOU 20
- 2 BUF 20 HOU 17
- 3 BUF 30 HOU 33
- 4 BUF 30 HOU 36
- 5 BUF 14 HOU 23
- 6 BUF 20 HOU 33
- 7 BUF 16 HOU 31
- 8 BUF 17 HOU 36
- 9 BUF 6 HOU 29
- 10 BUF 17 HOU 48
Your call
Did the Texans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bills win 18% of them, Texans 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bills by 17+ | 2.1% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 5.0% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 10.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Texans by 17+ | 37.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Bass, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 73% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 47 yds made · 80% expected
- T. Bass, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 59 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Bills 4 for 25 yards, Texans 7 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:04 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% HOU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 6:51 | False Start on the Bills (Keon Coleman), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.3 pts |
| Q1 2:07 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:50 | False Start on the Bills (Baylon Spector), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:23 | Taunting on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 15 yards | +1% BUF +1.2 pts |
| Q3 9:56 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 15 yards | +1% BUF +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:35 | False Start on the Texans (Dare Ogunbowale), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:35 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% BUF +1.7 pts |
| Q3 1:26 | Illegal Touch Kick on the Texans, 5 yards | +2% BUF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:32 | Defensive Holding on the Texans (Tim Settle), 5 yards | +1% BUF +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:44 | Intentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 10 yards | +13% BUF +0.9 pts |
Bills penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:06 | The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 10:43 | The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% HOU | HOU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q4 4:29 | The Texans fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% BUF | HOU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 3:30 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% HOU | BUF: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 2:33 | The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +15% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 1:52 | The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +16% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:44 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1327 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 | +31% BUF | HOU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | K. Fairbairn made a 59-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 38 of 54 from 45+ before | +20% HOU | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tytus Howard (HOU T), out · 0.8 pts
- Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Derek Barnett (HOU DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Khalil Shakir (BUF WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
- Taylor Rapp (BUF SS), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bills 42% · Texans 58%
- Final margin
- Texans by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Bills 18% · Texans 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · 
Bills · 
Texans
More from Week 5 2024
- Buccaneers at Falcons ATL 36–30 · replay 49% for the winner
- Jets vs Vikings MIN 23–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 41–38 · replay 53% for the winner
- Panthers at Bears CHI 36–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Browns at Commanders WAS 34–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 37–34 · replay 14% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 15–10 · replay 16% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers ARI 24–23 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 34–18 · replay 45% for the winner
- Packers at Rams GB 24–19 · replay 69% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 29–20 · replay 33% for the winner
- Cowboys at Steelers DAL 20–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Saints at Chiefs KC 26–13 · replay 76% for the winner