luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Bills at Texans, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Bills 23–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10. The Bills had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.9 points to the Bills.

An off day for the Bills: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 31 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 20
Houston Texans 23

October 6, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −1

Luck index +17 Texans about even · −17 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 BUF 34 HOU 20
  2. 2 BUF 27 HOU 23
  3. 3 BUF 27 HOU 29
  4. 4 BUF 19 HOU 24
  5. 5 BUF 28 HOU 36
  6. 6 BUF 20 HOU 31
  7. 7 BUF 13 HOU 27
  8. 8 BUF 9 HOU 27
  9. 9 BUF 10 HOU 33
  10. 10 BUF 13 HOU 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bills

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.

31 points apart for the Bills: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bills offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.19 worse by 0.20
Bills defenseEPA per play allowed +0.08 +0.10 better by 0.02
Texans offenseEPA per play gained +0.08 +0.06 better by 0.02
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.06 better by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 17% of them, Texans 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+1.6%
Bills by 9–164.2%
Bills by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation1.7%
Texans by 1–819.7%
Texans by 9–1622.3%
Texans by 17+40.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 1.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • T. Bass, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 59 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:06 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:30 The Bills converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +15% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q4 4:29 The Texans fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% BUF HOU: Punt
4 Q4 3:30 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% HOU BUF: Field goal
5 Q4 2:33 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +15% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q4 1:52 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +16% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q4 0:44 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1327 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +31% BUF HOU: Punt
8 Q4 0:02 K. Fairbairn made 59-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 38 of 54 from 45+ before +21% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Derek Barnett (HOU DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Khalil Shakir (BUF WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 37% · Texans 63%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
1.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Bills 17% · Texans 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Bills · Texans

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