luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Cowboys at Steelers, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Steelers 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.3 points to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:26 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 4, worth 45 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

October 6, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −2.5

Luck index +16 Cowboys about even · −16 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Steelers win 2.

  1. 1 DAL 30 PIT 3
  2. 2 DAL 20 PIT 0
  3. 3 DAL 23 PIT 6
  4. 4 DAL 27 PIT 14
  5. 5 DAL 28 PIT 17
  6. 6 DAL 17 PIT 10
  7. 7 DAL 13 PIT 9
  8. 8 DAL 17 PIT 14
  9. 9 DAL 13 PIT 16
  10. 10 DAL 3 PIT 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.

41 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.29 +0.13 better by 0.16
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.10 better by 0.05
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.04 better by 0.00
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.29 +0.05 worse by 0.24

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 84% of them, Steelers 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+34.8%
Cowboys by 9–1623.4%
Cowboys by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation0.8%
Steelers by 1–810.4%
Steelers by 9–164.1%
Steelers by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 7.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 55 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 38 yds blocked · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:08 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% PIT DAL: Field goal
2 Q3 10:43 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +14% DAL DAL: Missed field goal
3 Q3 8:51 B. Aubrey had a 38-yard field goal blockedKicks · 91% expected for him +11% PIT DAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:26 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +21% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:35 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:30 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +13% PIT DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:26 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +45% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:15 The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% PIT PIT: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • MyCole Pruitt (PIT TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL DE), out · 1.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 74% · Steelers 26%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
4.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 84% · Steelers 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Cowboys · Steelers

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