Week 18 · January 10 · 15 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 18 An early look at week 18, from what each team’s play has been worth so far adjusted for luck and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 15 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Panthers by 5.6 · 66% to win
Ours: Panthers by 5.6 Falcons win 34% Panthers win 66% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Falcons win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Falcons win 33.5% Panthers win 66.5% Middle 50%: Falcons by 3 to Panthers by 14 50% Middle 90%: Falcons by 17 to Panthers by 28 90% Middle 95%: Falcons by 21 to Panthers by 31 95% Exactly Panthers by 3 8.1% Exactly Falcons by 3 6.7% Exactly Panthers by 7 5.5% Exactly Panthers by 14 4.6% Exactly Panthers by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Panthers +2.3 Quarterbacks Panthers +1.9 This season, adjusted for luck Panthers +1.5 Last season Falcons +0.1
Bears by 0.5 · 52% to win
Ours: Bears by 0.5 Bears win 52% Vikings win 48% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bears win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bears win 51.6% Vikings win 48.4% Middle 50%: Bears by 10 to Vikings by 8 50% Middle 90%: Bears by 23 to Vikings by 21 90% Middle 95%: Bears by 27 to Vikings by 26 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.2% Exactly Vikings by 3 8.0% Exactly Bears by 7 5.0% Exactly Vikings by 7 4.8% Exactly Bears by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Vikings +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Bears +1.5 Last season Bears +0.8 Quarterbacks Bears +0.6
Bengals by 6.9 · 70% to win
Ours: Bengals by 6.9 Browns win 30% Bengals win 70% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Browns win by Bengals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Browns win 30.1% Bengals win 69.9% Middle 50%: Browns by 3 to Bengals by 16 50% Middle 90%: Browns by 15 to Bengals by 28 90% Middle 95%: Browns by 20 to Bengals by 33 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 7.9% Exactly Browns by 3 6.3% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.6% Exactly Bengals by 14 4.8% Exactly Bengals by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bengals +2.3 Quarterbacks Bengals +2.2 This season, adjusted for luck Bengals +2.0 Last season Bengals +0.4
Cowboys by 2.0 · 56% to win
Ours: Cowboys by 2.0 Cowboys win 56% Commanders win 44% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cowboys win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cowboys win 55.9% Commanders win 44.1% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 11 to Commanders by 7 50% Middle 90%: Cowboys by 24 to Commanders by 20 90% Middle 95%: Cowboys by 28 to Commanders by 24 95% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.3% Exactly Commanders by 3 7.7% Exactly Cowboys by 7 5.2% Exactly Commanders by 7 4.5% Exactly Cowboys by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Cowboys +2.5 Home field Commanders +2.3 Quarterbacks Cowboys +1.0 Last season Cowboys +0.8
Lions by 1.6 · 55% to win
Ours: Lions by 1.6 Lions win 55% Packers win 45% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Lions win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Lions win 54.7% Packers win 45.3% Middle 50%: Lions by 10 to Packers by 7 50% Middle 90%: Lions by 24 to Packers by 21 90% Middle 95%: Lions by 28 to Packers by 24 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.2% Exactly Packers by 3 7.8% Exactly Lions by 7 5.1% Exactly Packers by 7 4.5% Exactly Lions by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Lions +2.6 Home field Packers +2.3 Last season Lions +0.7 Quarterbacks Lions +0.6
Jaguars by 4.9 · 64% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 4.9 Jaguars win 64% Colts win 36% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jaguars win by Colts win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 64.5% Colts win 35.5% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 14 to Colts by 4 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 27 to Colts by 17 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 31 to Colts by 21 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.2% Exactly Colts by 3 7.0% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.5% Exactly Jaguars by 14 4.4% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Jaguars +5.5 Home field Colts +2.3 Last season Jaguars +1.2 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.5
Broncos by 7.7 · 72% to win
Ours: Broncos by 7.7 Chargers win 28% Broncos win 72% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Chargers win by Broncos win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 27.9% Broncos win 72.1% Middle 50%: Chargers by 3 to Broncos by 17 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 14 to Broncos by 30 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 18 to Broncos by 34 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 7.8% Exactly Chargers by 3 6.0% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.6% Exactly Broncos by 14 5.0% Exactly Broncos by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Broncos +3.3 Home field Broncos +2.3 Last season Broncos +1.5 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.6
Chiefs by 8.0 · 73% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 8.0 Raiders win 27% Chiefs win 73% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Raiders win by Chiefs win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Raiders win 27.3% Chiefs win 72.7% Middle 50%: Raiders by 2 to Chiefs by 17 50% Middle 90%: Raiders by 14 to Chiefs by 30 90% Middle 95%: Raiders by 18 to Chiefs by 34 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 7.7% Exactly Raiders by 3 5.9% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.5% Exactly Chiefs by 14 5.0% Exactly Chiefs by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Chiefs +2.9 Home field Chiefs +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Chiefs +1.6 Quarterbacks Chiefs +1.1
Patriots by 9.1 · 75% to win
Ours: Patriots by 9.1 Dolphins win 25% Patriots win 75% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Dolphins win by Patriots win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Dolphins win 24.6% Patriots win 75.4% Middle 50%: Patriots by 1 to Patriots by 18 50% Middle 90%: Dolphins by 13 to Patriots by 31 90% Middle 95%: Dolphins by 17 to Patriots by 35 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 7.5% Exactly Dolphins by 3 5.5% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.5% Exactly Patriots by 14 5.2% Exactly Patriots by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Patriots +3.5 This season, adjusted for luck Patriots +2.5 Home field Patriots +2.3 Quarterbacks Patriots +0.8
Bills by 11.8 · 81% to win
Ours: Bills by 11.8 Jets win 19% Bills win 81% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Jets win by Bills win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 18.8% Bills win 81.3% Middle 50%: Bills by 3 to Bills by 21 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 10 to Bills by 34 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 14 to Bills by 38 95% Exactly Bills by 3 6.7% Exactly Bills by 14 5.5% Exactly Bills by 7 5.2% Exactly Jets by 3 4.5% Exactly Bills by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Bills +4.7 This season, adjusted for luck Bills +2.6 Home field Bills +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +2.2
Giants by 0.3 · 51% to win
Ours: Giants by 0.3 Eagles win 49% Giants win 51% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Eagles win by Giants win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Eagles win 49.3% Giants win 50.7% Middle 50%: Eagles by 8 to Giants by 10 50% Middle 90%: Eagles by 21 to Giants by 22 90% Middle 95%: Eagles by 26 to Giants by 27 95% Exactly Giants by 3 8.1% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.1% Exactly Giants by 7 4.9% Exactly Eagles by 7 4.8% Exactly Giants by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Giants +2.3 Last season Eagles +2.0 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.5 This season, adjusted for luck Giants +0.5
Ravens by 7.1 · 70% to win
Ours: Ravens by 7.1 Steelers win 30% Ravens win 70% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Steelers win by Ravens win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Steelers win 29.7% Ravens win 70.3% Middle 50%: Steelers by 3 to Ravens by 16 50% Middle 90%: Steelers by 15 to Ravens by 29 90% Middle 95%: Steelers by 19 to Ravens by 33 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 7.9% Exactly Steelers by 3 6.3% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.6% Exactly Ravens by 14 4.9% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Ravens +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Ravens +2.2 Quarterbacks Ravens +1.9 Last season Ravens +0.6
Rams by 1.7 · 55% to win
Ours: Rams by 1.7 Seahawks win 45% Rams win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Seahawks win by Rams win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Seahawks win 45.0% Rams win 55.0% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 7 to Rams by 10 50% Middle 90%: Seahawks by 21 to Rams by 24 90% Middle 95%: Seahawks by 24 to Rams by 28 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.3% Exactly Seahawks by 3 7.8% Exactly Rams by 7 5.1% Exactly Seahawks by 7 4.5% Exactly Rams by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Seahawks +2.9 Home field Rams +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +2.2 Last season Rams +0.1
49ers by 7.7 · 72% to win
Ours: 49ers by 7.7 49ers win 72% Cardinals win 28% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← 49ers win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance 49ers win 72.1% Cardinals win 27.9% Middle 50%: 49ers by 17 to Cardinals by 3 50% Middle 90%: 49ers by 30 to Cardinals by 14 90% Middle 95%: 49ers by 34 to Cardinals by 18 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 7.8% Exactly Cardinals by 3 6.0% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.6% Exactly 49ers by 14 5.0% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck 49ers +5.7 Last season 49ers +2.4 Home field Cardinals +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +2.0
Saints by 2.4 · 57% to win
Ours: Saints by 2.4 Buccaneers win 43% Saints win 57% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Buccaneers win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Buccaneers win 42.9% Saints win 57.1% Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 7 to Saints by 11 50% Middle 90%: Buccaneers by 20 to Saints by 24 90% Middle 95%: Buccaneers by 24 to Saints by 28 95% Exactly Saints by 3 8.3% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 7.7% Exactly Saints by 7 5.2% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 4.4% Exactly Saints by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Saints +2.3 Quarterbacks Buccaneers +0.5 Last season Saints +0.3 This season, adjusted for luck Saints +0.3
Texans by 9.0 · 75% to win
Ours: Texans by 9.0 Titans win 25% Texans win 75% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Titans win by Texans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 24.9% Texans win 75.1% Middle 50%: Texans by 1 to Texans by 18 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 14 to Texans by 31 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 17 to Texans by 35 95% Exactly Texans by 3 7.5% Exactly Titans by 3 5.6% Exactly Texans by 7 5.5% Exactly Texans by 14 5.2% Exactly Texans by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texans +4.4 Home field Texans +2.3 Quarterbacks Texans +1.7 This season, adjusted for luck Texans +0.6
Falcons at 
Panthers 
