luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2026 NFL season · November 5, 2026–November 9

Week 9 2026: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 9 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Saints won 23–22 and take 49% of replays.

14 of 15 games scored so far; the rest appear the morning after they’re played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 9 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Packers 45–27 @ Patriots 41% 65% Deserved

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Saints W 23–22 vs Browns 49% +51
2 Broncos W 26–21 @ Panthers 51% +49
3 Giants W 19–11 @ Eagles 52% +48
4 Packers W 45–27 @ Patriots 65% +35
5 Bears W 27–24 vs Buccaneers 73% +27
6 Cowboys W 27–23 @ Colts 81% +19
7 Rams W 20–13 @ Commanders 84% +16
8 Lions W 19–9 @ Dolphins 85% +15
9 Chiefs W 35–12 vs Jets 87% +13
10 Jaguars W 33–10 @ Ravens 89% +11
11 Bengals W 34–17 @ Falcons 91% +9
12 Seahawks W 17–3 vs Cardinals 93% +7
13 Texans W 44–22 @ Chargers 94% +6
14 49ers W 38–17 vs Raiders 98% +2
15 Raiders L 17–38 @ 49ers 2% −2
16 Chargers L 22–44 vs Texans 6% −6
17 Cardinals L 3–17 @ Seahawks 7% −7
18 Falcons L 17–34 vs Bengals 9% −9
19 Ravens L 10–33 vs Jaguars 11% −11
20 Jets L 12–35 @ Chiefs 13% −13
21 Dolphins L 9–19 vs Lions 15% −15
22 Commanders L 13–20 vs Rams 16% −16
23 Colts L 23–27 vs Cowboys 19% −19
24 Buccaneers L 24–27 @ Bears 27% −27
25 Patriots L 27–45 vs Packers 35% −35
26 Eagles L 11–19 vs Giants 48% −48
27 Panthers L 21–26 vs Broncos 49% −49
28 Browns L 22–23 @ Saints 51% −51