luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Denver Broncos, 2026: game by game

The Broncos went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Chiefs L 10–31 14% −14
Week 2 vs Jaguars W 20–13 60% +40

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Drops+3.5+1.76
Kicks+3.2+1.62
Injuries+1.7+0.84
Judgment calls+1.0+0.48
Rest−0.2−0.10
Fumble bounces−3.1−1.57
3rd & 4th downs−4.7−2.35