One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Broncos in one-score games

The Broncos are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 11–2 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.6 of those 1. Since 2019: 31–37 in 68 one-score games, 31.2 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Broncos win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.4 1–0

2025 +3.6 11–2

2024 −1.0 1–6

2023 −0.1 5–4

2022 −2.2 4–9

2021 −1.0 1–5

2020 −0.2 4–6

2019 +0.3 4–5

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	0.6 of 1	+0.4	1–1
2025	11–2	7.4 of 13	+3.6	14–3
2024	1–6	2.0 of 7	−1.0	10–7
2023	5–4	5.1 of 9	−0.1	8–9
2022	4–9	6.2 of 13	−2.2	5–12
2021	1–5	2.0 of 6	−1.0	7–10
2020	4–6	4.2 of 10	−0.2	5–11
2019	4–5	3.7 of 9	+0.3	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Jaguars	W 20–13	60%	+40

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Denver Broncos, every season