One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Broncos in one-score games

The Broncos are 6–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 11–2 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.4 of those 6. Since 2019: 36–37 in 73 one-score games, 32.7 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Broncos win in replays (regular season).

2026 +3.6 6–0

2025 +3.6 11–2

2024 −0.6 1–6

2023 −0.3 5–4

2022 −2.3 4–9

2021 −1.0 1–5

2020 −0.1 4–6

2019 +0.3 4–5

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	6–0	2.4 of 6	+3.6	7–2
2025	11–2	7.4 of 13	+3.6	14–3
2024	1–6	1.6 of 7	−0.6	10–7
2023	5–4	5.3 of 9	−0.3	8–9
2022	4–9	6.3 of 13	−2.3	5–12
2021	1–5	2.0 of 6	−1.0	7–10
2020	4–6	4.1 of 10	−0.1	5–11
2019	4–5	3.7 of 9	+0.3	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Jaguars	W 20–13	60%	+40
Week 3	vs Rams	W 30–26	7%	+93
Week 5	@ Chargers	W 23–17	71%	+29
Week 6	vs Seahawks	W 17–14	23%	+77
Week 8	vs Chiefs	W 28–24	24%	+76
Week 9	@ Panthers	W 26–21	51%	+49

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Denver Broncos, every season