2019 season · final
Denver Broncos, 2019: game by game
The Broncos went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.
Every game
How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Raiders | L 16–24 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 2 | vs Bears | L 14–16 | 90% | −90 |
| Week 3 | @ Packers | L 16–27 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 4 | vs Jaguars | L 24–26 | 85% | −85 |
| Week 5 | @ Chargers | W 20–13 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 6 | vs Titans | W 16–0 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 7 | vs Chiefs | L 6–30 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 8 | @ Colts | L 13–15 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 9 | vs Browns | W 24–19 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 11 | @ Vikings | L 23–27 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 12 | @ Bills | L 3–20 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 13 | vs Chargers | W 23–20 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 14 | @ Texans | W 38–24 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 15 | @ Chiefs | L 3–23 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 16 | vs Lions | W 27–17 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 17 | vs Raiders | W 16–15 | 14% | +86 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.25 | +13.0 |
| Injuries | +0.17 | +7.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.05 | −0.2 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.05 | +12.2 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −0.6 |
| Kicks | −0.52 | +2.1 |