luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Colts, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Broncos 15–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Colts were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:26 left): A. Vinatieri made a 51-yard field goal, worth 31 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Denver Broncos 13
Indianapolis Colts 15

October 27, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −6

Luck index +15 Colts about even · −15 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 DEN 30 IND 17
  2. 2 DEN 23 IND 20
  3. 3 DEN 17 IND 19
  4. 4 DEN 18 IND 23
  5. 5 DEN 7 IND 16
  6. 6 DEN 16 IND 28
  7. 7 DEN 16 IND 30
  8. 8 DEN 27 IND 44
  9. 9 DEN 0 IND 22
  10. 10 DEN 17 IND 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 15% of them, Colts 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+1.3%
Broncos by 9–163.5%
Broncos by 1–89.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Colts by 1–819.5%
Colts by 9–1623.9%
Colts by 17+40.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Colts by 2, without the luck Colts by 9.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 45 yds missed · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 55 yds made · 60% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 51 yds made · 65% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 10 for 88 yards, Colts 10 for 103 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:21 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts, 14 yards +9% DEN +3.1 pts
Q2 13:36 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Khari Willis), 4 yards, wiping out the play +6% DEN +2.1 pts
Q2 9:25 Illegal Shift on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.8 pts
Q2 7:14 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 12:40 Illegal Shift on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% IND +1.3 pts
Q3 12:10 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 11:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 24 yards +6% DEN +1.7 pts
Q3 10:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DEN +2.3 pts
Q3 2:36 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos, 10 yards +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 2:21 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Andy Janovich), 10 yards +4% IND +1.1 pts
Q3 0:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 22 yards +9% DEN +2.9 pts
Q4 14:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 10 yards +8% IND +1.5 pts
Q4 14:01 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 4 yards +2% DEN +0.4 pts
Q4 11:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Juwann Winfree), 10 yards +6% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 11:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (DaeSean Hamilton), 10 yards +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 8:14 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DEN +1.4 pts
Q4 4:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Coty Sensabaugh), 3 yards +4% IND +1.1 pts
Q4 1:35 Horse Collar Tackle on the Broncos, 15 yards +16% IND +1.8 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% IND IND: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:27 A. Vinatieri missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +8% DEN IND: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts, 14 yardsJudgment calls +9% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q3 0:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 370 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +9% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q4 8:14 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 310 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +10% DEN DEN: Punt
6 Q4 7:48 The Colts fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% DEN IND: Punt
7 Q4 1:35 Horse Collar Tackle on the Broncos, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 0:26 A. Vinatieri made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +31% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Pierre Desir (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Gotsis (DEN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Will Parks (DEN FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 8% · Colts 92%

Final margin
Colts by 2
Luck in points
7.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 15% · Colts 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Broncos · Colts

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