luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Colts, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Broncos 15–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.0 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Colts were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:26 left): A. Vinatieri made 51-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Denver Broncos 13
Indianapolis Colts 15

October 27, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −6

Luck index +17 Colts about even · −17 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 DEN 27 IND 13
  2. 2 DEN 24 IND 21
  3. 3 DEN 20 IND 22
  4. 4 DEN 21 IND 27
  5. 5 DEN 16 IND 25
  6. 6 DEN 7 IND 19
  7. 7 DEN 7 IND 21
  8. 8 DEN 6 IND 23
  9. 9 DEN 17 IND 39
  10. 10 DEN 16 IND 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 17% of them, Colts 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+1.3%
Broncos by 9–164.2%
Broncos by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Colts by 1–820.3%
Colts by 9–1622.8%
Colts by 17+39.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 10.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 45 yds missed · 77% expected
  • B. McManus, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 55 yds made · 59% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:27 A. Vinatieri missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +8% DEN IND: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts, 14 yardsJudgment calls +9% DEN DEN: Field goal
3 Q3 0:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 370 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +9% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q4 12:30 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% DEN IND: Punt
5 Q4 8:14 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 310 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +10% DEN DEN: Punt
6 Q4 7:48 The Colts fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% DEN IND: Punt
7 Q4 1:35 Horse Collar Tackle on the Broncos, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 0:26 A. Vinatieri made 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +30% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Pierre Desir (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Gotsis (DEN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Will Parks (DEN FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 10% · Colts 90%

Final margin
Colts by 2
Luck in points
8.8 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 17% · Colts 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Broncos · Colts

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