Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Seahawks at Falcons, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Falcons 27–20, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.0 points to the Seahawks.
The Seahawks won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 37%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): M. Bryant missed 51-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 27 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +63 Seahawks very lucky · −63 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, Falcons win 6.
- 1 SEA 37 ATL 17
- 2 SEA 20 ATL 10
- 3 SEA 31 ATL 25
- 4 SEA 23 ATL 21
- 5 SEA 20 ATL 23
- 6 SEA 23 ATL 28
- 7 SEA 20 ATL 28
- 8 SEA 28 ATL 42
- 9 SEA 21 ATL 39
- 10 SEA 30 ATL 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Seahawks won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 37%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.12 | better by 0.11 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.12 | worse by 0.09 |
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.14 | better by 0.07 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.18 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 37% of them, Falcons 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 5.4% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 9.5% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 19.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Seahawks by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 6.1.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 42 yds made · 83% expected
- M. Bryant, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
- M. Bryant, 53 yds missed · 63% expected
- M. Bryant, 47 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Myers, 54 yds made · 61% expected
- M. Bryant, 37 yds made · 90% expected
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:09 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +5% SEA | SEA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:02 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:08 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% ATL | ATL: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | M. Bryant missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before | +10% SEA | ATL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 10:26 | The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +6% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 9:42 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Julio Jones), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 349 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +10% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:42 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 12:57 | The Falcons fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SEA | ATL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Matt Ryan (ATL QB), out, replaced by m.schaub · 2.9 pts
- Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out · 0.9 pts
- James Carpenter (ATL G), out · 0.4 pts
- Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Quinton Jefferson (SEA DT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 36% · Falcons 64%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 7
- Luck in points
- 13.1 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 37% · Falcons 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · 
Seahawks · 
Falcons
More from Week 8 2019
- Washington at Vikings MIN 19–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Saints NO 31–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bengals vs Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 15–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chargers at Bears LAC 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants at Lions DET 31–26 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars JAX 29–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eagles at Bills PHI 31–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Titans TEN 27–23 · replay 16% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 51–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 27–13 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Texans HOU 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Packers at Chiefs GB 31–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Dolphins at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 92% for the winner