luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Patriots, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Browns 27–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:55 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 28 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Cleveland Browns 13
New England Patriots 27

October 27, 2019 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −9.5

Luck index +29 Patriots lucky · −29 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Patriots win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 17 NE 0
  2. 2 CLE 21 NE 14
  3. 3 CLE 24 NE 22
  4. 4 CLE 22 NE 24
  5. 5 CLE 13 NE 17
  6. 6 CLE 7 NE 14
  7. 7 CLE 28 NE 38
  8. 8 CLE 21 NE 35
  9. 9 CLE 19 NE 39
  10. 10 CLE 21 NE 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 29% of them, Patriots 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+3.9%
Browns by 9–168.8%
Browns by 1–815.4%
Level after regulation2.9%
Patriots by 1–824.0%
Patriots by 9–1621.6%
Patriots by 17+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Browns: the final margin was Patriots by 14, without the luck Patriots by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Nugent, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Nugent, 29 yds blocked · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Nugent, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Nugent, 34 yds missed · 92% expected
  • A. Seibert, 47 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 13 for 85 yards, Patriots 4 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 10 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q1 2:48 False Start on the Patriots (Nate Ebner), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q1 1:47 Delay of Kickoff on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q1 0:23 False Start on the Browns (Pharaoh Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% NE +1.7 pts
Q2 13:50 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Shilique Calhoun), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts
Q2 6:32 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 5 yards +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 5:58 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns, 5 yards +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q2 3:42 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns (Eric Murray), 5 yards +1% NE +0.8 pts
Q2 0:28 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.1 pts
Q3 0:13 False Start on the Browns (Demetrius Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.3 pts
Q4 13:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Antonio Callaway), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NE +3.5 pts
Q4 6:50 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Rashard Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% NE +4.2 pts
Q4 6:17 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.2 pts
Q4 2:38 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.8 pts
Q4 1:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jason McCourty), 17 yards 0% CLE +0.5 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:04 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q1 9:12 The Patriots converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q1 5:55 The Browns fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +28% NE CLE: Turnover
4 Q1 4:11 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% NE NE: Punt
5 Q2 2:25 M. Nugent had a 29-yard field goal blockedKicks · 96% expected for him +6% CLE NE: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:48 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% NE CLE: Field goal
7 Q3 8:26 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Antonio Callaway), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 67 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +5% NE NE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Gordon (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shaq Mason (NE G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Damarious Randall (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 2% · Patriots 98%

Final margin
Patriots by 14
Luck in points
0.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 29% · Patriots 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Browns · Patriots

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