luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Texans, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Raiders 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9.2 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:51 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 6, worth 19 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Oakland Raiders 24
Houston Texans 27

October 27, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5

Luck index +57 Texans lucky · −57 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 OAK 51 HOU 27
  2. 2 OAK 34 HOU 17
  3. 3 OAK 45 HOU 34
  4. 4 OAK 42 HOU 34
  5. 5 OAK 19 HOU 14
  6. 6 OAK 21 HOU 19
  7. 7 OAK 22 HOU 24
  8. 8 OAK 17 HOU 25
  9. 9 OAK 15 HOU 28
  10. 10 OAK 21 HOU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 57% of them, Texans 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+14.6%
Raiders by 9–1615.8%
Raiders by 1–825.9%
Level after regulation3.4%
Texans by 1–819.4%
Texans by 9–1613.1%
Texans by 17+7.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 5.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Carlson, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:51 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +18% OAK OAK: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:44 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:26 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 325 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +10% OAK OAK: Punt
4 Q2 7:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Hunter Renfrow), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 198 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +11% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q3 8:02 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +18% OAK OAK: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:58 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 8:46 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Johnathan Joseph (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcell Ateman (OAK WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 88% · Texans 12%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
8.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 57% · Texans 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Raiders · Texans

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