luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Texans, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Raiders 27–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Texans win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:02 left): Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 17 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Oakland Raiders 24
Houston Texans 27

October 27, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5

Luck index +55 Texans lucky · −55 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 OAK 28 HOU 3
  2. 2 OAK 33 HOU 17
  3. 3 OAK 34 HOU 23
  4. 4 OAK 27 HOU 20
  5. 5 OAK 27 HOU 23
  6. 6 OAK 29 HOU 27
  7. 7 OAK 17 HOU 20
  8. 8 OAK 24 HOU 30
  9. 9 OAK 17 HOU 28
  10. 10 OAK 6 HOU 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 55% of them, Texans 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+12.3%
Raiders by 9–1614.4%
Raiders by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation5.5%
Texans by 1–821.2%
Texans by 9–1613.7%
Texans by 17+9.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Raiders by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Carlson, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 11 for 100 yards, Texans 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:51 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 5 yards +4% HOU +1.6 pts
Q1 10:22 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OAK +0.7 pts
Q1 7:23 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q1 2:43 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.3 pts
Q1 2:26 Face Mask on the Raiders (Karl Joseph), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.8 pts
Q2 8:26 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% OAK +2.7 pts
Q2 7:12 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 7:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Hunter Renfrow), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% HOU +3.6 pts
Q2 6:09 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 4:42 Face Mask on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +6% HOU +1.8 pts
Q2 3:46 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% OAK +1.2 pts
Q2 0:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans (Peter Kalambayi), 10 yards +4% OAK +0.9 pts
Q2 0:38 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% OAK +1.3 pts
Q3 14:28 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% OAK +0.9 pts
Q3 5:57 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OAK +0.3 pts
Q4 10:48 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 7:01 Illegal Contact on the Raiders, 5 yards +6% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% HOU +2.3 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:26 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 325 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +9% OAK OAK: Punt
2 Q2 7:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Hunter Renfrow), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 198 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +11% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 0:38 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% OAK OAK: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:02 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% OAK OAK: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:58 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:56 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% HOU OAK: Field goal
7 Q4 8:46 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Johnathan Joseph (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcell Ateman (OAK WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 81% · Texans 19%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
5.1 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 55% · Texans 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Raiders · Texans

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