luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Oakland Raiders, 2019: game by game

The Raiders went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Broncos W 24–16 82% +18
Week 2 vs Chiefs L 10–28 13% −13
Week 3 @ Vikings L 14–34 19% −19
Week 4 @ Colts W 31–24 55% +45
Week 5 vs Bears W 24–21 87% +13
Week 7 @ Packers L 24–42 62% −62
Week 8 @ Texans L 24–27 57% −57
Week 9 vs Lions W 31–24 40% +60
Week 10 vs Chargers W 26–24 41% +59
Week 11 vs Bengals W 17–10 94% +6
Week 12 @ Jets L 3–34 25% −25
Week 13 @ Chiefs L 9–40 22% −22
Week 14 vs Titans L 21–42 12% −12
Week 15 vs Jaguars L 16–20 75% −75
Week 16 @ Chargers W 24–17 42% +58
Week 17 @ Broncos L 15–16 87% −87

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+8.5+0.53
Rest+0.6+0.04
3rd & 4th downs−7.0−0.43
Kicks−11.7−0.73
Judgment calls−33.7−2.11