2019 season · final
Oakland Raiders, 2019: game by game
The Raiders went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.
Every game
How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Broncos | W 24–16 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 2 | vs Chiefs | L 10–28 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 3 | @ Vikings | L 14–34 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 4 | @ Colts | W 31–24 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 5 | vs Bears | W 24–21 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 7 | @ Packers | L 24–42 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | L 24–27 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 9 | vs Lions | W 31–24 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 10 | vs Chargers | W 26–24 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 17–10 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | @ Jets | L 3–34 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 13 | @ Chiefs | L 9–40 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 14 | vs Titans | L 21–42 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 15 | vs Jaguars | L 16–20 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 16 | @ Chargers | W 24–17 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 17 | @ Broncos | L 15–16 | 86% | −86 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.17 | +6.4 |
| Rest | +0.02 | +0.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.03 | −7.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.20 | −0.4 |
| Kicks | −0.28 | −12.3 |
| Judgment calls | −0.61 | −16.4 |