luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Chargers, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chargers 24–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.2 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:07 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 6, worth 18 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Oakland Raiders 24
Los Angeles Chargers 17

December 22, 2019 · StubHub Center · Closing line: Chargers −7.5

Luck index +58 Raiders lucky · −58 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Chargers win 6.

  1. 1 OAK 36 LAC 17
  2. 2 OAK 34 LAC 24
  3. 3 OAK 26 LAC 21
  4. 4 OAK 33 LAC 31
  5. 5 OAK 21 LAC 23
  6. 6 OAK 14 LAC 17
  7. 7 OAK 16 LAC 25
  8. 8 OAK 20 LAC 32
  9. 9 OAK 19 LAC 34
  10. 10 OAK 24 LAC 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 42% of them, Chargers 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+6.4%
Raiders by 9–1612.3%
Raiders by 1–821.5%
Level after regulation2.6%
Chargers by 1–826.9%
Chargers by 9–1617.3%
Chargers by 17+13.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 8.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 48 yds made · 69% expected
  • M. Badgley, 27 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Chargers (Melvin Gordon), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 354 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +6% OAK OAK: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:07 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +18% OAK OAK: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:43 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% LAC OAK: Punt
4 Q2 5:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 387 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:07 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% LAC OAK: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:03 The Raiders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +11% OAK OAK: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:14 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +12% OAK OAK: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Okung (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Roderic Teamer (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trent Brown (OAK T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Richie Incognito (OAK G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 94% · Chargers 6%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
1.0 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 42% · Chargers 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Raiders · Chargers

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