luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Browns, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 31–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10.3 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:48 left): Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 31
Cleveland Browns 15

December 22, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +12 Ravens about even · −12 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Browns win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 34 CLE 3
  2. 2 BAL 38 CLE 13
  3. 3 BAL 30 CLE 10
  4. 4 BAL 48 CLE 31
  5. 5 BAL 27 CLE 13
  6. 6 BAL 31 CLE 20
  7. 7 BAL 20 CLE 13
  8. 8 BAL 28 CLE 24
  9. 9 BAL 33 CLE 31
  10. 10 BAL 13 CLE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 88% of them, Browns 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+43.7%
Ravens by 9–1623.3%
Ravens by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Browns by 1–88.5%
Browns by 9–162.4%
Browns by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 21.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Tucker, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 13:03 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% CLE CLE: Punt
3 Q1 7:16 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% CLE BAL: Turnover
4 Q1 5:34 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% BAL CLE: Punt
5 Q1 0:48 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 892 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 368 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:09 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% BAL CLE: Punt
8 Q3 14:10 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · Browns 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 16
Luck in points
5.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 21.1
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 88% · Browns 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Ravens · Browns

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