AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Ravens have won 76 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 79.3. Luck cost them 3.3 wins. Their luckiest season was 2022 (+1.4 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−2.0).
2026: 4–5 so far, replay wins 4.6 (−0.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4–5 | 4.6 | −0.6 | 3–2 | −0.20 | – |
| 2025 | 8–9 | 10.0 | −2.0 | 2–5 | +0.36 | – |
| 2024 | 12–5 | 14.0 | −2.0 | 5–5 | −1.26 | 1–1 |
| 2023 | 13–4 | 13.7 | −0.7 | 4–4 | −0.69 | 1–1 |
| 2022 | 10–7 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 6–5 | −0.44 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 8–9 | 9.0 | −1.0 | 6–6 | −0.96 | – |
| 2020 | 11–5 | 10.2 | +0.8 | 2–4 | −1.20 | 1–1 |
| 2019 | 14–2 | 13.9 | +0.1 | 5–1 | −0.78 | 0–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −2.0 | −0.27 | −0.81 | −0.14 | +0.18 | −0.51 | +0.08 |
| 2024 | −2.0 | −0.04 | −0.94 | +0.22 | −0.63 | +0.34 | +0.10 |
| 2023 | −0.7 | −0.43 | −1.24 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.24 | +0.32 |
| 2022 | +1.4 | +0.06 | +0.63 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.49 | +0.18 |
| 2021 | −1.0 | +0.47 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.86 | −0.26 |
| 2020 | +0.8 | +0.09 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.20 | +0.44 |
| 2019 | +0.1 | +0.47 | +0.52 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.05 | +0.21 |
| Since 2019 | −3.3 | +0.34 | −0.10 | −0.34 | −2.48 | −1.61 | +1.08 |
Are the Ravens lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Ravens have won 76 regular-season games from play worth 79.3: −3.3 wins of luck, the 12th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Ravens had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from judgment calls (−2.5 wins) and injuries (−1.6 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 30–30 since 2019, where the replays give them 36.5 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Ravens’ luckiest season?
2022: 10–7 from play worth 8.6 wins, +1.4 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2025: 8–9 from play worth 10.0 (−2.0).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Ravens’ luckiest wins
Wins the Ravens take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 14 | @ Steelers | W 16–14 | 26% | +74 |
| 2022 Week 5 | vs Bengals | W 19–17 | 38% | +62 |
| 2022 Week 7 | vs Browns | W 23–20 | 39% | +61 |
| 2022 Week 9 | @ Saints | W 27–13 | 41% | +59 |
| 2025 Week 17 | @ Packers | W 41–24 | 41% | +59 |
The Ravens’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Ravens would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 8 | @ Browns | L 24–29 | 99% | −99 |
| 2024 Week 11 | @ Steelers | L 16–18 | 90% | −90 |
| 2023 Week 18 | vs Steelers | L 10–17 | 89% | −89 |
| 2021 Week 18 | vs Steelers | L 13–16 | 86% | −86 |
| 2023 Week 10 | vs Browns | L 31–33 | 86% | −86 |
