luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 7, 2022

Ravens at Saints, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Saints 27–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.0 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:36 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 6 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 27
New Orleans Saints 13

November 7, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Ravens −1

Luck index +59 Ravens lucky · −59 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 4, Saints win 6.

  1. 1 BAL 31 NO 14
  2. 2 BAL 34 NO 24
  3. 3 BAL 24 NO 19
  4. 4 BAL 16 NO 14
  5. 5 BAL 24 NO 26
  6. 6 BAL 15 NO 19
  7. 7 BAL 13 NO 20
  8. 8 BAL 17 NO 27
  9. 9 BAL 20 NO 34
  10. 10 BAL 7 NO 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 41% of them, Saints 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+6.4%
Ravens by 9–1612.6%
Ravens by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
Saints by 1–827.9%
Saints by 9–1616.4%
Saints by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 13.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3970 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +12% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 9:11 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% BAL NO: Punt
3 Q1 4:26 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:55 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% BAL NO: Punt
5 Q2 9:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q2 7:51 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:08 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% BAL NO: Field goal
8 Q4 14:04 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% BAL NO: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · Saints 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
0.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 41% · Saints 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Ravens · Saints

More from Week 9 2022