Week 9 2022 · November 3, 2022
Eagles at Texans, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Texans 29–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:03 left): J. Elliott missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 29 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Eagles about even · −11 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Texans win 1.
- 1 PHI 35 HOU 7
- 2 PHI 38 HOU 16
- 3 PHI 30 HOU 13
- 4 PHI 35 HOU 20
- 5 PHI 34 HOU 21
- 6 PHI 26 HOU 16
- 7 PHI 24 HOU 17
- 8 PHI 19 HOU 14
- 9 PHI 16 HOU 14
- 10 PHI 14 HOU 20
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 89% of them, Texans 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 46.6% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 23.3% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Texans by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 54 yds missed · 67% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Eagles 4 for 31 yards, Texans 4 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:37 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Shaun Bradley), 8 yards | +1% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:27 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 8 yards | +2% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:14 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:49 | Offensive Holding on the Texans (Brevin Jordan), 10 yards | +4% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:22 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:44 | Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 15 yards | +2% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 3:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kyzir White), 3 yards | +1% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% HOU +1.9 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:56 | The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:05 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:36 | The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +9% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:16 | The Eagles fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% HOU | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:37 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:03 | J. Elliott missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 13 of 22 from 45+ before | +14% HOU | PHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 13:36 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% HOU | PHI: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 8:23 | The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +5% PHI | HOU: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
- Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Maliek Collins (HOU DT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 99% · Texans 1%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 12
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 10.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 89% · Texans 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · 
Eagles · 
Texans
More from Week 9 2022
- Bills at Jets NYJ 20–17 · replay 51% for the winner
- Panthers at Bengals CIN 42–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Packers at Lions DET 15–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Colts at Patriots NE 26–3 · replay 69% for the winner
- Chargers at Falcons LAC 20–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Raiders at Jaguars JAX 27–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bears MIA 35–32 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Commanders MIN 20–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Rams at Buccaneers TB 16–13 · replay 71% for the winner
- Titans at Chiefs KC 20–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Ravens at Saints BAL 27–13 · replay 41% for the winner