luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 3, 2022

Eagles at Texans, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Texans 29–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.1 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:23 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 29
Houston Texans 17

November 3, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −14

Luck index +23 Eagles about even · −23 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 PHI 35 HOU 7
  2. 2 PHI 28 HOU 7
  3. 3 PHI 30 HOU 13
  4. 4 PHI 20 HOU 6
  5. 5 PHI 34 HOU 24
  6. 6 PHI 30 HOU 23
  7. 7 PHI 13 HOU 9
  8. 8 PHI 22 HOU 20
  9. 9 PHI 9 HOU 12
  10. 10 PHI 16 HOU 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 77% of them, Texans 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+30.2%
Eagles by 9–1621.4%
Eagles by 1–825.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Texans by 1–812.0%
Texans by 9–166.3%
Texans by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 9.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 54 yds missed · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:56 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:51 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:36 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:16 The Eagles fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:03 J. Elliott missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 13 of 22 from 45+ before +14% HOU PHI: Punt
7 Q3 13:36 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% HOU PHI: Punt
8 Q3 8:23 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% PHI HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Maliek Collins (HOU DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 99% · Texans 1%

Final margin
Eagles by 12
Luck in points
2.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 77% · Texans 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Eagles · Texans

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