luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Dolphins at Bears, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Bears 35–32, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.7 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:55 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Miami Dolphins 35
Chicago Bears 32

November 6, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Dolphins −4

Luck index +20 Dolphins about even · −20 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 8, Bears win 2.

  1. 1 MIA 31 CHI 3
  2. 2 MIA 30 CHI 9
  3. 3 MIA 37 CHI 21
  4. 4 MIA 30 CHI 17
  5. 5 MIA 27 CHI 17
  6. 6 MIA 41 CHI 34
  7. 7 MIA 24 CHI 20
  8. 8 MIA 22 CHI 20
  9. 9 MIA 26 CHI 30
  10. 10 MIA 16 CHI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 80% of them, Bears 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+31.9%
Dolphins by 9–1620.6%
Dolphins by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Bears by 1–811.6%
Bears by 9–165.1%
Bears by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 4.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Sanders, 29 yds missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:28 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:33 Blocked punt by the DolphinsSpecial teams +13% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 2:00 The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:00 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
5 Q3 11:32 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +16% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Eddie Jackson), 47 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3551 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +12% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 7:55 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +22% CHI MIA: Punt
8 Q4 1:29 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +19% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 62% · Bears 38%

Final margin
Dolphins by 3
Luck in points
1.2 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 80% · Bears 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Dolphins · Bears

More from Week 9 2022