luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Titans at Chiefs, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Titans 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.7 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): C. Okonkwo dropped a catchable pass, worth 46 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final (OT)

Tennessee Titans 17
Kansas City Chiefs 20

November 6, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −14

Luck index +4 Chiefs about even · −4 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 17 KC 20
  2. 2 TEN 23 KC 30
  3. 3 TEN 37 KC 48
  4. 4 TEN 6 KC 20
  5. 5 TEN 21 KC 38
  6. 6 TEN 23 KC 44
  7. 7 TEN 17 KC 41
  8. 8 TEN 26 KC 54
  9. 9 TEN 10 KC 44
  10. 10 TEN 6 KC 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 4% of them, Chiefs 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.3%
Titans by 9–160.9%
Titans by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Chiefs by 1–86.8%
Chiefs by 9–1614.5%
Chiefs by 17+74.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 4.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • H. Butker, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:05 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Rashad Weaver), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 316 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +14% KC KC: Field goal
2 Q4 3:05 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +24% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:56 The Chiefs’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Titans, 1 yardsJudgment calls +14% KC KC: Punt
4 Q4 0:43 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yardsJudgment calls +16% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q4 0:22 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedC. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 9 catchable balls before this +46% KC TEN: Punt
6 Q4 0:05 T. Kelce dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 61 catchable balls before this +39% TEN KC: End of game
7 QOT 7:04 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +24% KC KC: Field goal
8 QOT 4:07 H. Butker made 28-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +15% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Clark (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 7.0 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 2% · Chiefs 98%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
1.3 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 4% · Chiefs 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Titans · Chiefs

More from Week 9 2022