luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2022: game by game

The Titans went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–6.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Giants L 20–21 53% −53
Week 2 @ Bills L 7–41 1% −1
Week 3 vs Raiders W 24–22 54% +46
Week 4 @ Colts W 24–17 79% +21
Week 5 @ Commanders W 21–17 37% +63
Week 7 vs Colts W 19–10 41% +59
Week 8 @ Texans W 17–10 98% +2
Week 9 @ Chiefs L 17–20 4% −4
Week 10 vs Broncos W 17–10 87% +13
Week 11 @ Packers W 27–17 85% +15
Week 12 vs Bengals L 16–20 13% −13
Week 13 @ Eagles L 10–35 10% −10
Week 14 vs Jaguars L 22–36 7% −7
Week 15 @ Chargers L 14–17 11% −11
Week 16 vs Texans L 14–19 66% −66
Week 17 vs Cowboys L 13–27 4% −4
Week 18 @ Jaguars L 16–20 27% −27

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Titans’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
3rd & 4th downs−0.3−0.02
Rest−1.0−0.06
Kicks−7.5−0.44
Fumble bounces−11.0−0.65
Judgment calls−13.1−0.77
Drops−27.3−1.61
Injuries−43.1−2.54