2022 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2022: game by game
The Titans went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–6.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Giants | L 20–21 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 2 | @ Bills | L 7–41 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 3 | vs Raiders | W 24–22 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 4 | @ Colts | W 24–17 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 5 | @ Commanders | W 21–17 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 7 | vs Colts | W 19–10 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | W 17–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 9 | @ Chiefs | L 17–20 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 10 | vs Broncos | W 17–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 11 | @ Packers | W 27–17 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 12 | vs Bengals | L 16–20 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 13 | @ Eagles | L 10–35 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 14 | vs Jaguars | L 22–36 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 15 | @ Chargers | L 14–17 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 16 | vs Texans | L 14–19 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 17 | vs Cowboys | L 13–27 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 18 | @ Jaguars | L 16–20 | 26% | −26 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.05 | −8.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.30 | +0.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.44 | −15.1 |
| Injuries | −0.73 | −32.4 |
| Drops | −0.75 | −35.0 |
| Kicks | −0.86 | −7.5 |