luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Titans at Colts, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Colts 24–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Colts: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Colts were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:49 left): the Colts fumbled and the Titans recovered, worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 24
Indianapolis Colts 17

October 2, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −4.5

Luck index +14 Titans about even · −14 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 44 IND 14
  2. 2 TEN 39 IND 17
  3. 3 TEN 34 IND 16
  4. 4 TEN 22 IND 7
  5. 5 TEN 33 IND 20
  6. 6 TEN 23 IND 13
  7. 7 TEN 27 IND 21
  8. 8 TEN 17 IND 13
  9. 9 TEN 33 IND 31
  10. 10 TEN 26 IND 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Colts

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

44 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.12 worse by 0.07
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.10 worse by 0.08
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.10 better by 0.08
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.11 better by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 86% of them, Colts 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+37.4%
Titans by 9–1622.3%
Titans by 1–825.8%
Level after regulation1.1%
Colts by 1–88.6%
Colts by 9–164.0%
Colts by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Colts: the final margin was Titans by 7, without the luck Titans by 7.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 6 for 40 yards, Colts 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Mario Edwards), 5 yards +6% IND +1.4 pts
Q1 10:56 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 13:28 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.1 pts
Q2 13:14 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Ifeadi Odenigbo), 15 yards +3% TEN +1.8 pts
Q2 12:16 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.8 pts
Q2 9:34 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 9:11 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 3:19 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 0:46 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 5 yards 0% IND +0.4 pts
Q3 13:34 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q3 10:32 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 8:40 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Stephon Gilmore), 5 yards 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q4 4:57 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +6% IND +0.9 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:04 The Colts converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q1 10:56 The Colts fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% TEN IND: Punt
3 Q3 2:38 The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% IND IND: Punt
4 Q3 1:22 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% IND IND: Punt
5 Q4 8:49 The Colts fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% TEN IND: Missed field goal
6 Q4 4:57 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% IND IND: Missed field goal
7 Q4 2:45 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% TEN IND: Missed field goal
8 Q4 2:03 C. McLaughlin missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 14 of 22 from 45+ before +9% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 86% · Colts 14%

Final margin
Titans by 7
Luck in points
0.7 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 7.7
Replay with same day's form
Titans 86% · Colts 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Titans · Colts

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