luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Jets at Steelers, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Steelers 24–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:08 left): the Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 36 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 24
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

October 2, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +44 Jets lucky · −44 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 6, Steelers win 4.

  1. 1 NYJ 30 PIT 9
  2. 2 NYJ 20 PIT 6
  3. 3 NYJ 20 PIT 9
  4. 4 NYJ 26 PIT 17
  5. 5 NYJ 29 PIT 24
  6. 6 NYJ 12 PIT 10
  7. 7 NYJ 13 PIT 16
  8. 8 NYJ 9 PIT 16
  9. 9 NYJ 17 PIT 30
  10. 10 NYJ 13 PIT 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 56% of them, Steelers 44%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+11.3%
Jets by 9–1616.9%
Jets by 1–822.1%
Level after regulation5.4%
Steelers by 1–820.8%
Steelers by 9–1614.1%
Steelers by 17+9.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 12.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Boswell, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Boswell, 59 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:41 The Steelers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% NYJ PIT: Punt
2 Q2 1:49 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Jets got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
3 Q2 0:09 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Carl Lawson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1311 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +15% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q3 8:53 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +34% PIT NYJ: Punt
5 Q4 9:48 The Jets converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:51 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Corey Davis), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2246 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +16% PIT PIT: Turnover
7 Q4 0:50 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Tyson Alualu), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1230 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +20% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:08 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +36% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendrick Green (PIT C), out · 0.2 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quincy Williams (NYJ LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 92% · Steelers 8%

Final margin
Jets by 4
Luck in points
8.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 12.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 56% · Steelers 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Jets · Steelers

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