luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Seahawks at Lions, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Lions 48–45, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.0 points to the Lions.

An off day for the Lions: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 48
Detroit Lions 45

October 2, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3

Luck index +13 Seahawks about even · −13 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Lions win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 41 DET 9
  2. 2 SEA 44 DET 20
  3. 3 SEA 41 DET 20
  4. 4 SEA 30 DET 13
  5. 5 SEA 27 DET 14
  6. 6 SEA 24 DET 14
  7. 7 SEA 24 DET 17
  8. 8 SEA 35 DET 31
  9. 9 SEA 31 DET 28
  10. 10 SEA 7 DET 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Lions

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

36 points apart for the Lions: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.61 +0.11 better by 0.50
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed +0.33 +0.12 worse by 0.21
Lions offenseEPA per play gained +0.33 +0.07 better by 0.26
Lions defenseEPA per play allowed +0.61 +0.15 worse by 0.46

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 87% of them, Lions 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+47.5%
Seahawks by 9–1621.8%
Seahawks by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation1.9%
Lions by 1–87.2%
Lions by 9–162.9%
Lions by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 3.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Eberle, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Myers, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds missed · 90% expected
  • J. Myers, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:12 D. Eberle made 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +8% DET DET: Turnover
2 Q2 9:17 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedD. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 21 catchable balls before this +10% DET SEA: Field goal
3 Q3 15:00 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +15% SEA DET: Punt
4 Q3 0:40 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:23 The Lions’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffensive Holding on the Seahawks (Marquise Goodwin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 753 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +9% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:07 The Lions converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:28 The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:22 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +15% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (DET K), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 80% · Lions 20%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
0.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 87% · Lions 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Seahawks · Lions

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