luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Bills at Ravens, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Ravens 23–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:05 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 12, worth 15 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Buffalo Bills 23
Baltimore Ravens 20

October 2, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +35 Bills lucky · −35 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 7, Ravens win 3.

  1. 1 BUF 30 BAL 6
  2. 2 BUF 23 BAL 6
  3. 3 BUF 24 BAL 10
  4. 4 BUF 27 BAL 17
  5. 5 BUF 10 BAL 3
  6. 6 BUF 17 BAL 13
  7. 7 BUF 16 BAL 14
  8. 8 BUF 17 BAL 20
  9. 9 BUF 6 BAL 13
  10. 10 BUF 9 BAL 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 65% of them, Ravens 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+18.2%
Bills by 9–1620.5%
Bills by 1–824.5%
Level after regulation2.9%
Ravens by 1–819.1%
Ravens by 9–169.5%
Ravens by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Bills by 7.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • T. Bass, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • T. Bass, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 4 for 31 yards, Ravens 9 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:23 Face Mask on the Bills, 4 yards +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q1 11:57 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q2 14:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% BUF +1.9 pts
Q2 9:19 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q2 3:59 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 2:51 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% BUF +1.1 pts
Q3 14:52 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.6 pts
Q4 12:20 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q4 12:15 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q4 9:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 17 yards +7% BAL +1.5 pts
Q4 8:29 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 2:06 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens, 15 yards +7% BUF +1.3 pts
Q4 2:06 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.6 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 The Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsFace Mask on the Bills, 4 yardsJudgment calls +6% BAL BUF: Field goal
2 Q1 7:15 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +5% BUF BAL: Turnover
4 Q4 10:29 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% BAL BAL: Turnover
5 Q4 9:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2925 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% BAL BAL: Turnover
6 Q4 7:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +15% BAL BAL: Turnover
7 Q4 4:15 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% BUF –
8 Q4 2:59 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +7% BUF BUF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF DB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 91% · Ravens 9%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
4.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 65% · Ravens 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Bills · Ravens

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