luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Bills at Ravens, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Ravens 23–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: drops alone were worth 6.2 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:15 left): the Ravens were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 23
Baltimore Ravens 20

October 2, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +39 Bills lucky · −39 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Ravens win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 31 BAL 8
  2. 2 BUF 24 BAL 7
  3. 3 BUF 23 BAL 10
  4. 4 BUF 19 BAL 10
  5. 5 BUF 16 BAL 10
  6. 6 BUF 16 BAL 14
  7. 7 BUF 21 BAL 23
  8. 8 BUF 24 BAL 30
  9. 9 BUF 9 BAL 19
  10. 10 BUF 13 BAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 61% of them, Ravens 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+16.3%
Bills by 9–1617.5%
Bills by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation2.7%
Ravens by 1–819.6%
Ravens by 9–1612.8%
Ravens by 17+5.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 75% expected
  • T. Bass, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • T. Bass, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFace Mask on the Bills, 4 yardsJudgment calls +18% BAL BUF: Field goal
2 Q3 1:35 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% BAL BAL: Turnover
3 Q4 14:18 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% BAL BUF: Punt
4 Q4 10:29 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% BAL BAL: Turnover
5 Q4 7:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +15% BAL BAL: Turnover
6 Q4 4:15 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% BUF –
7 Q4 2:59 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +11% BUF BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 T. Bass made 21-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +19% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF DB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 91% · Ravens 9%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
5.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Bills 61% · Ravens 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Bills · Ravens

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