2022 season · final
Buffalo Bills, 2022: game by game
The Bills went 13–3 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.2.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Rams | W 31–10 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 2 | vs Titans | W 41–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | @ Dolphins | L 19–21 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 4 | @ Ravens | W 23–20 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 5 | vs Steelers | W 38–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 6 | @ Chiefs | W 24–20 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 8 | vs Packers | W 27–17 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 9 | @ Jets | L 17–20 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 30–33 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 11 | vs Browns | W 31–23 | 71% | +30 |
| Week 12 | @ Lions | W 28–25 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 13 | @ Patriots | W 24–10 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 14 | vs Jets | W 20–12 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 15 | vs Dolphins | W 32–29 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 16 | @ Bears | W 35–13 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 18 | vs Patriots | W 35–23 | 89% | +11 |
| Wild Card | vs Dolphins | W 34–31 | 93% | +7 |
| Divisional round | vs Bengals | L 10–27 | 24% | −24 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bills’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +15.4 | +0.96 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +6.3 | +0.39 |
| Rest | +2.6 | +0.16 |
| Judgment calls | +0.3 | +0.02 |
| Injuries | −3.1 | −0.20 |
| Drops | −7.4 | −0.47 |
| Fumble bounces | −11.0 | −0.69 |