2022 season · final
Buffalo Bills, 2022: game by game
The Bills went 13–3 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.2.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Rams | W 31–10 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 2 | vs Titans | W 41–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | @ Dolphins | L 19–21 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 4 | @ Ravens | W 23–20 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 5 | vs Steelers | W 38–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 6 | @ Chiefs | W 24–20 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 8 | vs Packers | W 27–17 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 9 | @ Jets | L 17–20 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 30–33 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 11 | vs Browns | W 31–23 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 12 | @ Lions | W 28–25 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 13 | @ Patriots | W 24–10 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 14 | vs Jets | W 20–12 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 15 | vs Dolphins | W 32–29 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 16 | @ Bears | W 35–13 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 18 | vs Patriots | W 35–23 | 89% | +11 |
| Wild Card | vs Dolphins | W 34–31 | 94% | +6 |
| Divisional round | vs Bengals | L 10–27 | 24% | −24 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.25 | +14.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.08 | +6.8 |
| Rest | +0.06 | +2.6 |
| Drops | +0.03 | −5.0 |
| Injuries | −0.06 | −2.5 |
| Judgment calls | −0.34 | −0.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.56 | −14.8 |