luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Bills at Dolphins, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Bills 21–19, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Bills had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Bills were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:49 left): the Bills were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 36 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Buffalo Bills 19
Miami Dolphins 21

September 25, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bills −4

Luck index +39 Dolphins lucky · −39 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 28 MIA 10
  2. 2 BUF 33 MIA 23
  3. 3 BUF 14 MIA 10
  4. 4 BUF 22 MIA 20
  5. 5 BUF 14 MIA 17
  6. 6 BUF 17 MIA 22
  7. 7 BUF 20 MIA 27
  8. 8 BUF 0 MIA 11
  9. 9 BUF 14 MIA 28
  10. 10 BUF 14 MIA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 39% of them, Dolphins 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+5.8%
Bills by 9–1612.3%
Bills by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation3.3%
Dolphins by 1–829.3%
Dolphins by 9–1617.6%
Dolphins by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Bills: the final margin was Dolphins by 2, without the luck Dolphins by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 38 yds blocked · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 52 yards, Dolphins 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards +1% BUF +0.8 pts
Q1 8:58 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q1 8:16 Defensive Holding on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +1.1 pts
Q1 4:48 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Shaq Lawson), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA 0.0 pts
Q2 2:28 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Matt Milano), 15 yards +6% MIA +1.8 pts
Q3 4:24 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.9 pts
Q4 13:25 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% BUF +1.4 pts
Q4 10:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jaquan Johnson), 2 yards +4% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 8:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Josh Allen), 15 yards +5% MIA +1.1 pts
Q4 5:06 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 0:22 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +13% MIA +0.5 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 2:12 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% BUF BUF: Missed field goal
2 Q4 14:12 T. Bass had a 38-yard field goal blockedKicks · 90% expected for him +12% MIA BUF: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 13:25 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 11:37 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +17% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:48 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +14% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 5:51 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +10% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:49 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +36% MIA BUF: End of game
8 Q4 0:22 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yardsJudgment calls +13% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Raekwon Davis (MIA NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mitch Morse (BUF C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dane Jackson (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ike Boettger (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 18% · Dolphins 82%

Final margin
Dolphins by 2
Luck in points
2.9 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 39% · Dolphins 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Bills · Dolphins

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