luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Chiefs at Colts, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Colts stole one. They beat the Chiefs 20–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.0 points to the Colts.

The Colts won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:08 left): the Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 35 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 17
Indianapolis Colts 20

September 25, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −4.5

Luck index +95 Colts very lucky · −95 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 KC 37 IND 3
  2. 2 KC 37 IND 10
  3. 3 KC 34 IND 12
  4. 4 KC 35 IND 17
  5. 5 KC 24 IND 10
  6. 6 KC 34 IND 23
  7. 7 KC 31 IND 23
  8. 8 KC 19 IND 14
  9. 9 KC 12 IND 10
  10. 10 KC 17 IND 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Colts won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

31 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.21 worse by 0.16
Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed −0.08 +0.12 better by 0.21
Colts offenseEPA per play gained −0.08 +0.11 worse by 0.20
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.11 better by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 95% of them, Colts 5%. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+59.2%
Chiefs by 9–1621.1%
Chiefs by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Colts by 1–83.8%
Colts by 9–161.1%
Colts by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 1.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 34 yds missed · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 3:38 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% KC IND: Field goal
2 Q3 2:58 C. McLaughlin made 51-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 13 of 21 from 45+ before +11% IND IND: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 10:52 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% KC IND: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:04 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% KC KC: Missed field goal
5 Q4 8:41 M. Ammendola missed 34-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +12% IND KC: Turnover
6 Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yardsJudgment calls +13% KC KC: Turnover
7 Q4 0:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 937 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +28% KC KC: Turnover
8 Q4 0:08 The Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +35% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 49% · Colts 51%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
1.8 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 95% · Colts 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Chiefs · Colts

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