luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Ravens at Patriots, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Patriots 37–26, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:12 left): the Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 11 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 37
New England Patriots 26

September 25, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2.5

Luck index +37 Ravens lucky · −37 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Patriots win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 37 NE 10
  2. 2 BAL 34 NE 16
  3. 3 BAL 29 NE 17
  4. 4 BAL 35 NE 27
  5. 5 BAL 40 NE 34
  6. 6 BAL 44 NE 42
  7. 7 BAL 26 NE 29
  8. 8 BAL 16 NE 23
  9. 9 BAL 3 NE 16
  10. 10 BAL 10 NE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 63% of them, Patriots 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+19.6%
Ravens by 9–1618.3%
Ravens by 1–824.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Patriots by 1–816.9%
Patriots by 9–1611.8%
Patriots by 17+7.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Ravens by 11, without the luck Ravens by 16.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • N. Folk, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Tucker, 56 yds made · 69% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 2 for 10 yards, Patriots 3 for 16 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:09 Illegal Formation on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% BAL +1.2 pts
Q1 1:35 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +1% BAL +1.0 pts
Q2 13:37 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.8 pts
Q2 8:24 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 8:52 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Patriots, 1 yard · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.3 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:34 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NE NE: Punt
2 Q2 11:21 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% NE NE: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 9:25 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% BAL NE: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:24 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Ravens, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% NE BAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:47 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:43 R. Bateman dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 8 catchable balls before this +5% NE BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 13:38 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:12 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +11% BAL NE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jakobi Meyers (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 11
Luck in points
5.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 16.1
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 63% · Patriots 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Ravens · Patriots

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