Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022
Ravens at Patriots, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Patriots 37–26 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Patriots.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:12 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 33 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 37 |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Ravens lucky · −32 Patriots
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 7, Patriots win 3.
- 1 BAL 44 NE 16
- 2 BAL 34 NE 14
- 3 BAL 26 NE 10
- 4 BAL 26 NE 14
- 5 BAL 36 NE 27
- 6 BAL 27 NE 20
- 7 BAL 30 NE 27
- 8 BAL 33 NE 36
- 9 BAL 27 NE 37
- 10 BAL 20 NE 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 68% of them, Patriots 32%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 25.5% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.1% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 15.6% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Patriots by 17+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Ravens by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 13.2.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- N. Folk, 50 yds made · 71% expected
- J. Tucker, 56 yds made · 66% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Patriots’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:21 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +7% NE | NE: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q2 8:24 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Ravens, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +13% NE | BAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:47 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% BAL | NE: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 4:47 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +9% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:43 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedR. Bateman dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 8 catchable balls before this | +6% NE | BAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 13:38 | The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +8% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:12 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +33% BAL | NE: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 5:45 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% BAL | NE: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jakobi Meyers (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 100% · Patriots 0%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 11
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for the Patriots
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 13.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 68% · Patriots 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · 
Ravens · 
Patriots
More from Week 3 2022
- Steelers at Browns CLE 29–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 21–19 · replay 60% for the winner
- Bengals at Jets CIN 27–12 · replay 94% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 28–24 · replay 77% for the winner
- Texans at Bears CHI 23–20 · replay 72% for the winner
- Chiefs at Colts IND 20–17 · replay 5% for the winner
- Raiders at Titans TEN 24–22 · replay 54% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 22–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Eagles at Commanders PHI 24–8 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chargers JAX 38–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Falcons at Seahawks ATL 27–23 · replay 54% for the winner
- Packers at Buccaneers GB 14–12 · replay 53% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 20–12 · replay 81% for the winner
- 49ers at Broncos DEN 11–10 · replay 45% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 23–16 · replay 96% for the winner