luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

49ers at Broncos, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the 49ers 11–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:51 left): the 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 28 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 10
Denver Broncos 11

September 25, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: 49ers −1

Luck index +55 Broncos lucky · −55 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 6, Broncos win 4.

  1. 1 SF 43 DEN 16
  2. 2 SF 33 DEN 14
  3. 3 SF 20 DEN 7
  4. 4 SF 34 DEN 24
  5. 5 SF 23 DEN 17
  6. 6 SF 13 DEN 11
  7. 7 SF 16 DEN 19
  8. 8 SF 10 DEN 17
  9. 9 SF 10 DEN 22
  10. 10 SF 23 DEN 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 55% of them, Broncos 45%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+16.3%
49ers by 9–1616.2%
49ers by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Broncos by 1–819.7%
Broncos by 9–1613.2%
Broncos by 17+9.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 4.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 55 yds made · 64% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds missed · 67% expected
  • R. Gould, 51 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 3:51 B. McManus missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 34 of 48 from 45+ before +14% SF DEN: Punt
2 Q3 0:45 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedM. Boone dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +9% SF DEN: Punt
3 Q4 7:11 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:28 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +15% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:31 The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% SF SF: Turnover
6 Q4 2:13 The 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% DEN SF: Turnover
7 Q4 1:51 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +28% SF SF: Turnover
8 Q4 1:15 The 49ers fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quinn Meinerz (DEN G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (SF FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Brunskill (SF G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Mitchell (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 29% · Broncos 71%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
3.7 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 55% · Broncos 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · 49ers · Broncos

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