luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Saints at Panthers, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Saints 22–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.7 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:44 left): Return touchdown by the Panthers, worth 35 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 14
Carolina Panthers 22

September 25, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Saints −2

Luck index +22 Panthers about even · −22 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Panthers win 8.

  1. 1 NO 30 CAR 16
  2. 2 NO 24 CAR 20
  3. 3 NO 17 CAR 20
  4. 4 NO 23 CAR 28
  5. 5 NO 13 CAR 20
  6. 6 NO 6 CAR 16
  7. 7 NO 10 CAR 23
  8. 8 NO 10 CAR 26
  9. 9 NO 6 CAR 27
  10. 10 NO 13 CAR 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 22% of them, Panthers 78%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+2.8%
Saints by 9–167.0%
Saints by 1–811.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Panthers by 1–823.6%
Panthers by 9–1620.3%
Panthers by 17+33.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 1.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • W. Lutz, 30 yds blocked · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 48 yds missed · 73% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:37 The Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 10:54 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% NO NO: Punt
3 Q1 8:37 Chop Block on the Saints (Mark Ingram), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1136 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 +11% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q1 5:44 The Saints fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +35% CAR NO: Punt
5 Q2 11:18 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% NO CAR: Punt
6 Q2 0:53 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% NO NO: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:33 W. Lutz had a 30-yard field goal blockedKicks · 96% expected for him +6% CAR NO: Missed field goal
8 Q3 7:58 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% CAR NO: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 43% · Panthers 57%

Final margin
Panthers by 8
Luck in points
6.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Saints 22% · Panthers 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Saints · Panthers

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