NFC South
New Orleans Saints: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Saints have won 61 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 63.2. Luck cost them 2.2 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+2.4 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−3.2).
2026: 3–5 so far, replay wins 3.0 (0.0 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3–5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3–3 | +0.01 | – |
| 2025 | 6–11 | 7.3 | −1.3 | 3–5 | −0.19 | – |
| 2024 | 5–12 | 7.2 | −2.2 | 2–6 | −0.72 | – |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 9.4 | −0.4 | 3–6 | −0.23 | – |
| 2022 | 7–10 | 10.2 | −3.2 | 5–6 | +0.07 | – |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 8.1 | +0.9 | 2–3 | −0.15 | – |
| 2020 | 12–4 | 10.3 | +1.7 | 5–3 | −1.24 | 1–1 |
| 2019 | 13–3 | 10.6 | +2.4 | 7–1 | −1.81 | 0–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −1.3 | +0.01 | −0.95 | −0.42 | −0.09 | +0.21 | −0.30 |
| 2024 | −2.2 | −0.31 | +0.55 | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.81 | −0.53 |
| 2023 | −0.4 | +0.15 | −0.29 | +0.10 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.02 |
| 2022 | −3.2 | −0.13 | −0.58 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.45 | −0.12 |
| 2021 | +0.9 | −0.23 | −0.24 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.93 | 0.00 |
| 2020 | +1.7 | +0.33 | −0.16 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.46 | +0.20 |
| 2019 | +2.4 | +0.56 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.06 | +0.16 |
| Since 2019 | −2.2 | +0.37 | −0.96 | −0.86 | −2.14 | −2.47 | −0.60 |
Are the Saints lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Saints have won 61 regular-season games from play worth 63.2: −2.2 wins of luck, the 15th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Saints had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from injuries (−2.5 wins) and judgment calls (−2.1 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 27–30 since 2019, where the replays give them 30.7 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Saints’ luckiest season?
2019: 13–3 from play worth 10.6 wins, +2.4 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2022: 7–10 from play worth 10.2 (−3.2).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Saints’ luckiest wins
Wins the Saints take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 15 | @ Buccaneers | W 9–0 | 16% | +84 |
| 2021 Week 8 | vs Buccaneers | W 36–27 | 22% | +78 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Ravens | W 24–17 | 27% | +73 |
| 2020 Week 10 | vs 49ers | W 27–13 | 35% | +65 |
| 2021 Week 5 | @ Washington | W 33–22 | 35% | +65 |
The Saints’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Saints would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 18 | vs Panthers | L 7–10 | 93% | −93 |
| 2024 Week 9 | @ Panthers | L 22–23 | 89% | −89 |
| 2022 Week 7 | @ Cardinals | L 34–42 | 86% | −86 |
| 2022 Week 13 | @ Buccaneers | L 16–17 | 86% | −86 |
| 2021 Week 4 | vs Giants | L 21–27 | 83% | −83 |
