luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Saints at Panthers, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Saints 23–22, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:09 left): the Saints were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 22
Carolina Panthers 23

November 3, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Saints −7

Luck index +89 Panthers very lucky · −89 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 NO 40 CAR 10
  2. 2 NO 30 CAR 6
  3. 3 NO 33 CAR 13
  4. 4 NO 19 CAR 2
  5. 5 NO 22 CAR 9
  6. 6 NO 16 CAR 6
  7. 7 NO 13 CAR 5
  8. 8 NO 23 CAR 17
  9. 9 NO 29 CAR 27
  10. 10 NO 17 CAR 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 89% of them, Panthers 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+47.1%
Saints by 9–1623.2%
Saints by 1–818.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Panthers by 1–86.6%
Panthers by 9–162.4%
Panthers by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 1, without the luck Saints by 2.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Grupe, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Grupe, 51 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 10 for 109 yards, Panthers 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 15 yards +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q1 1:02 Running Into the Kicker on the Saints, 5 yards +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 14:49 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 9:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 15 yards +2% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 8:50 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards +5% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 1:53 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q2 1:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Willie Gay Jr.), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 11:11 Face Mask on the Saints (Demario Davis), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.2 pts
Q4 8:03 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 7:40 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CAR +1.3 pts
Q4 5:48 Delay of Game on the Saints, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 4:46 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 4:35 Face Mask on the Saints, 13 yards +4% CAR +1.4 pts
Q4 2:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Demario Davis), 22 yards +14% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 2:18 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO 0.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:53 The Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q4 15:00 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q4 12:02 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:22 The Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% NO CAR: Punt
5 Q4 3:14 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Demario Davis), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 5952 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:18 The Panthers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDelay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% NO CAR: End of game
8 Q4 1:09 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +23% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Harris (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 70% · Panthers 30%

Final margin
Panthers by 1
Luck in points
3.7 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 89% · Panthers 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Saints · Panthers

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