luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Cowboys at Falcons, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Cowboys 27–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:04 left): C. Lamb dropped a catchable pass, worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 21
Atlanta Falcons 27

November 3, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +18 Falcons about even · −18 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 2, Falcons win 8.

  1. 1 DAL 30 ATL 17
  2. 2 DAL 23 ATL 20
  3. 3 DAL 21 ATL 24
  4. 4 DAL 30 ATL 34
  5. 5 DAL 21 ATL 28
  6. 6 DAL 23 ATL 34
  7. 7 DAL 9 ATL 24
  8. 8 DAL 14 ATL 34
  9. 9 DAL 13 ATL 36
  10. 10 DAL 6 ATL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 18% of them, Falcons 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+1.7%
Cowboys by 9–165.1%
Cowboys by 1–811.0%
Level after regulation1.1%
Falcons by 1–822.9%
Falcons by 9–1621.5%
Falcons by 17+36.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.3 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 6, without the luck Cowboys by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 57 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 55 yards, Falcons 4 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:14 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q1 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 10 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q1 2:33 False Start on the Falcons (Ray-Ray McCloud), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DAL +2.9 pts
Q2 6:26 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 5:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Zach Harrison), 1 yard +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 5:13 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 9:30 False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 8:07 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +1.0 pts
Q3 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.5 pts
Q4 9:43 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 5:58 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:08 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% ATL ATL: Turnover
2 Q2 11:26 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +8% ATL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:34 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:55 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q2 2:27 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% ATL ATL: Punt
7 Q2 0:04 C. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 344 catchable balls before this +19% ATL DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 13:15 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% ATL DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL DE), out · 1.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 58% · Falcons 42%

Final margin
Falcons by 6
Luck in points
9.3 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 18% · Falcons 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Cowboys · Falcons

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