Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024
Jaguars at Eagles, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Jaguars 28–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:16 left): J. Elliott missed a 57-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Eagles lucky · −38 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Eagles win 6.
- 1 JAX 34 PHI 14
- 2 JAX 25 PHI 14
- 3 JAX 31 PHI 24
- 4 JAX 27 PHI 24
- 5 JAX 17 PHI 19
- 6 JAX 20 PHI 25
- 7 JAX 24 PHI 33
- 8 JAX 7 PHI 20
- 9 JAX 14 PHI 33
- 10 JAX 9 PHI 37
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 38% of them, Eagles 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 6.4% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 18.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 85% expected
- J. Elliott, 57 yds missed · 64% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 4 for 17 yards, Eagles 8 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:40 | False Start on the Eagles (Jack Stoll), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:14 | False Start on the Eagles (Saquon Barkley), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:14 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% JAX +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Johnny Wilson), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% JAX +3.4 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.1 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 10 yards | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:21 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:02 | Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Myles Cole), 5 yards | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:31 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Andre Cisco), 1 yard | 0% PHI +0.1 pts |
| Q4 8:38 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +1% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 18 yards | +13% JAX +1.7 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:20 | The Jaguars fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% PHI | JAX: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:55 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +8% JAX | PHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 5:26 | The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams | +21% JAX | JAX: Opp touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 1:25 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +8% JAX | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 2:16 | J. Elliott missed a 57-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 31 of 44 from 45+ before | +21% JAX | PHI: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 2:05 | E. Engram dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 247 catchable balls before this | +14% PHI | JAX: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 2:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3107 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +13% JAX | JAX: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:42 | The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +14% PHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.0 pts
- Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Ezra Cleveland (JAX G), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 7% · Eagles 93%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 5
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 10.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 38% · Eagles 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · 
Jaguars · 
Eagles
More from Week 9 2024
- Texans at Jets NYJ 21–13 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cowboys at Falcons ATL 27–21 · replay 82% for the winner
- Broncos at Ravens BAL 41–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chargers at Browns LAC 27–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Bengals CIN 41–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 30–27 · replay 78% for the winner
- Patriots at Titans TEN 20–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 23–22 · replay 11% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants WAS 27–22 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Cardinals ARI 29–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Lions at Packers DET 24–14 · replay 83% for the winner
- Rams at Seahawks LA 26–20 · replay 36% for the winner
- Colts at Vikings MIN 21–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chiefs KC 30–24 · replay 54% for the winner