luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Raiders at Bengals, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Raiders 41–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 72% favorites.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 24
Cincinnati Bengals 41

November 3, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −8

Luck index +5 Bengals about even · −5 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Bengals win 9.

  1. 1 LV 23 CIN 17
  2. 2 LV 25 CIN 28
  3. 3 LV 20 CIN 27
  4. 4 LV 33 CIN 43
  5. 5 LV 3 CIN 16
  6. 6 LV 12 CIN 28
  7. 7 LV 20 CIN 40
  8. 8 LV 20 CIN 43
  9. 9 LV 6 CIN 33
  10. 10 LV 6 CIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 5% of them, Bengals 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.1%
Raiders by 9–160.9%
Raiders by 1–83.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Bengals by 1–89.2%
Bengals by 9–1618.8%
Bengals by 17+66.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 17, without the luck Bengals by 15.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 6 for 51 yards, Bengals 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Ivey), 16 yards +7% LV +2.6 pts
Q1 9:50 Encroachment on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q2 2:58 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bengals, 5 yards +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 14 yards +6% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:17 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Josh Newton), 2 yards 0% LV +0.2 pts
Q2 0:17 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.1 pts
Q3 12:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 17 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 6:47 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Raiders (Tommy Eichenberg), 5 yards 0% CIN +0.4 pts
Q3 4:26 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q4 6:24 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +2.3 pts
Q4 2:25 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +1.2 pts
Q4 1:57 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.5 pts
Q4 1:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Josh Newton), 27 yards 0% LV +1.7 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Ivey), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 168 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:24 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% LV CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:38 The Bengals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:46 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:40 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% CIN LV: Punt
6 Q2 7:16 T. Irwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +4% LV CIN: Field goal
7 Q2 3:03 D. Carlson made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 45 of 57 from 45+ before +4% LV LV: Punt
8 Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 30 flags in 5712 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 17
Luck in points
1.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 15.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 5% · Bengals 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Raiders · Bengals

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