luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Raiders at Bengals, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Raiders 41–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.0 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:51 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 8 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 24
Cincinnati Bengals 41

November 3, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −8

Luck index +2 Bengals about even · −2 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 LV 20 CIN 23
  2. 2 LV 10 CIN 16
  3. 3 LV 23 CIN 32
  4. 4 LV 13 CIN 26
  5. 5 LV 16 CIN 33
  6. 6 LV 20 CIN 39
  7. 7 LV 9 CIN 31
  8. 8 LV 20 CIN 45
  9. 9 LV 10 CIN 40
  10. 10 LV 14 CIN 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 2% of them, Bengals 98%. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.1%
Raiders by 9–160.5%
Raiders by 1–81.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
Bengals by 1–86.5%
Bengals by 9–1616.4%
Bengals by 17+74.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 18.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Ivey), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 168 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:24 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% LV CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:38 The Bengals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:46 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:40 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% CIN LV: Punt
6 Q2 7:16 T. Irwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +5% LV CIN: Field goal
7 Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 30 flags in 5712 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:51 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CIN LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 17
Luck in points
1.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 18.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 2% · Bengals 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Raiders · Bengals

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