Week 9 2024 · October 31, 2024
Texans at Jets, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Texans 21–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.
Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:57 left): K. Fairbairn missed a 27-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Houston Texans | 13 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Jets lucky · −35 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texans win 4, Jets win 6.
- 1 HOU 23 NYJ 7
- 2 HOU 23 NYJ 13
- 3 HOU 24 NYJ 20
- 4 HOU 20 NYJ 18
- 5 HOU 14 NYJ 16
- 6 HOU 24 NYJ 29
- 7 HOU 16 NYJ 24
- 8 HOU 14 NYJ 27
- 9 HOU 10 NYJ 26
- 10 HOU 9 NYJ 34
Your call
Did the Jets earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texans win 35% of them, Jets 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texans by 17+ | 3.8% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 11.1% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 28.2% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Jets by 17+ | 16.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 56 yds missed · 64% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 65% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 27 yds missed · 98% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Texans 7 for 60 yards, Jets 9 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jamal Hill), 10 yards | +2% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q1 14:51 | Defensive Offside on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 11:44 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:15 | Roughing the Kicker on the Jets, 15 yards | +11% HOU +3.7 pts |
| Q1 5:44 | Offensive Holding on the Texans (Cade Stover), 10 yards | +2% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:31 | Face Mask on the Texans (Folorunso Fatukasi), 15 yards | +2% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:21 | Offensive Holding on the Texans (Robert Woods), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% NYJ +2.2 pts |
| Q2 6:55 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards | +4% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | Face Mask on the Jets (Kenny Yeboah), 15 yards | +4% HOU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Contact on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 5 yards | +8% NYJ +1.7 pts |
| Q4 13:31 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% HOU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 8:23 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 13 yards | +17% HOU +2.7 pts |
| Q4 2:33 | Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Isaiah Oliver), 12 yards | +2% HOU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 1:00 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 3 yards | +1% HOU +0.7 pts |
Texans penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:15 | Roughing the Kicker on the Jets, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +11% HOU | HOU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 1:08 | The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 0:27 | K. Fairbairn missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 41 of 57 from 45+ before | +12% NYJ | HOU: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 4:16 | K. Fairbairn made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 41 of 58 from 45+ before | +10% HOU | HOU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 13:31 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% HOU | HOU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 13:01 | The Jets converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +14% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 8:23 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +17% HOU | HOU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 6:57 | K. Fairbairn missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him | +19% NYJ | HOU: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Tony Adams (NYJ FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out · 0.2 pts
- Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texans 21% · Jets 79%
- Final margin
- Jets by 8
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 4.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Texans 35% · Jets 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · 
Texans · 
Jets
More from Week 9 2024
- Cowboys at Falcons ATL 27–21 · replay 82% for the winner
- Broncos at Ravens BAL 41–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chargers at Browns LAC 27–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Bengals CIN 41–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 30–27 · replay 78% for the winner
- Patriots at Titans TEN 20–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 23–22 · replay 11% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants WAS 27–22 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Cardinals ARI 29–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jaguars at Eagles PHI 28–23 · replay 62% for the winner
- Lions at Packers DET 24–14 · replay 83% for the winner
- Rams at Seahawks LA 26–20 · replay 36% for the winner
- Colts at Vikings MIN 21–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chiefs KC 30–24 · replay 54% for the winner