luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · October 31, 2024

Texans at Jets, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Texans 21–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.9 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:01 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 19, worth 20 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Houston Texans 13
New York Jets 21

October 31, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2.5

Luck index +52 Jets lucky · −52 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 HOU 26 NYJ 5
  2. 2 HOU 16 NYJ 3
  3. 3 HOU 12 NYJ 3
  4. 4 HOU 15 NYJ 9
  5. 5 HOU 13 NYJ 10
  6. 6 HOU 10 NYJ 12
  7. 7 HOU 16 NYJ 20
  8. 8 HOU 19 NYJ 27
  9. 9 HOU 7 NYJ 19
  10. 10 HOU 6 NYJ 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 52% of them, Jets 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+10.2%
Texans by 9–1614.8%
Texans by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.2%
Jets by 1–822.5%
Jets by 9–1613.8%
Jets by 17+9.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 8.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds missed · 62% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 27 yds missed · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:15 Roughing the Kicker on the Jets, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% HOU HOU: Turnover
2 Q2 0:27 K. Fairbairn missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 41 of 57 from 45+ before +12% NYJ HOU: End of half
3 Q3 1:16 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +14% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:01 The Jets converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +20% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:03 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% NYJ HOU: Missed field goal
6 Q4 8:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 13 yardsJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q4 6:57 K. Fairbairn missed 27-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +19% NYJ HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 3:02 The Jets converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 14% · Jets 86%

Final margin
Jets by 8
Luck in points
0.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 52% · Jets 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Texans · Jets

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