luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Dolphins at Bills, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Dolphins 30–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Bills were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:10 left): T. Bass made 61-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Miami Dolphins 27
Buffalo Bills 30

November 3, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6.5

Luck index +17 Bills about even · −17 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 MIA 23 BUF 12
  2. 2 MIA 26 BUF 23
  3. 3 MIA 31 BUF 33
  4. 4 MIA 20 BUF 24
  5. 5 MIA 10 BUF 17
  6. 6 MIA 10 BUF 19
  7. 7 MIA 22 BUF 34
  8. 8 MIA 9 BUF 24
  9. 9 MIA 7 BUF 26
  10. 10 MIA 6 BUF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 17% of them, Bills 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+1.4%
Dolphins by 9–164.8%
Dolphins by 1–810.2%
Level after regulation2.2%
Bills by 1–826.9%
Bills by 9–1624.1%
Bills by 17+30.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 2.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • T. Bass, 49 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 61 yds made · 51% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:45 The Bills were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% MIA BUF: Field goal
2 Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% MIA MIA: End of half
3 Q3 7:24 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q4 14:07 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% BUF MIA: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:28 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:34 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jordan Poyer), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 6307 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Chop Robinson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 275 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 0:10 T. Bass made 61-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 33 of 48 from 45+ before +22% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Sieler (MIA DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jevon Holland (MIA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 33% · Bills 67%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
0.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 17% · Bills 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Dolphins · Bills

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