luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 4, 2024

Buccaneers at Chiefs, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 30–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.0 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:19 left): the Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 43 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
Kansas City Chiefs 30

November 4, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −9

Luck index +47 Chiefs lucky · −47 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 TB 35 KC 14
  2. 2 TB 26 KC 13
  3. 3 TB 19 KC 10
  4. 4 TB 38 KC 34
  5. 5 TB 16 KC 14
  6. 6 TB 18 KC 20
  7. 7 TB 22 KC 26
  8. 8 TB 30 KC 38
  9. 9 TB 13 KC 26
  10. 10 TB 16 KC 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 47% of them, Chiefs 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+8.6%
Buccaneers by 9–1613.6%
Buccaneers by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.4%
Chiefs by 1–825.1%
Chiefs by 9–1614.1%
Chiefs by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:06 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% TB KC: Punt
2 Q2 8:18 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:17 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +14% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:46 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedOffensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% KC TB: Punt
5 Q4 14:21 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:20 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:19 The Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +43% KC KC: Punt
8 QOT 4:15 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +8% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashee Rice (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Danna (KC DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isiah Pacheco (KC RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 42% · Chiefs 58%

Final margin
Chiefs by 6
Luck in points
5.7 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 47% · Chiefs 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Buccaneers · Chiefs

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