luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Chargers at Browns, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Browns 27–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.8 points to the Browns.

An off day for the Browns: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:10 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 6, worth 18 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 27
Cleveland Browns 10

November 3, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2

Luck index +8 Chargers about even · −8 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Browns win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 45 CLE 12
  2. 2 LAC 24 CLE 0
  3. 3 LAC 20 CLE 0
  4. 4 LAC 28 CLE 10
  5. 5 LAC 24 CLE 10
  6. 6 LAC 31 CLE 19
  7. 7 LAC 14 CLE 5
  8. 8 LAC 30 CLE 24
  9. 9 LAC 22 CLE 20
  10. 10 LAC 10 CLE 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

30 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.04 better by 0.07
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.06 better by 0.20
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 −0.00 worse by 0.14
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.03 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 92% of them, Browns 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+57.7%
Chargers by 9–1619.6%
Chargers by 1–814.4%
Level after regulation0.8%
Browns by 1–85.5%
Browns by 9–161.6%
Browns by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 14.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Dicker, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds blocked · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:55 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q1 8:50 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 2292 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:54 The Chargers converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +13% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:36 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q2 10:16 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +4% LAC CLE: Field goal
6 Q2 9:33 D. Hopkins made 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +7% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q2 8:10 The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +18% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q2 7:29 Illegal Motion on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 3069 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan McFadden (LAC G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 100% · Browns 0%

Final margin
Chargers by 17
Luck in points
2.3 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 14.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 92% · Browns 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Chargers · Browns

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