Week 16 · December 24–28 · 13 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 16 An early look at week 16, from what each team’s play has been worth so far adjusted for luck and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 13 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Eagles by 2.2 · 57% to win
Ours: Eagles by 2.2 Texans win 43% Eagles win 57% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 43.3% Eagles win 56.7% Middle 50%: Texans by 7 to Eagles by 11 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 20 to Eagles by 24 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 24 to Eagles by 28 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.3% Exactly Texans by 3 7.7% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.2% Exactly Texans by 7 4.4% Exactly Eagles by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Eagles +2.3 Last season Texans +0.5 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.5 This season, adjusted for luck Texans +0.1
Bears by 6.5 · 69% to win
Ours: Bears by 6.5 Packers win 31% Bears win 69% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Packers win by Bears win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Packers win 31.2% Bears win 68.8% Middle 50%: Packers by 3 to Bears by 16 50% Middle 90%: Packers by 16 to Bears by 28 90% Middle 95%: Packers by 20 to Bears by 32 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.0% Exactly Packers by 3 6.5% Exactly Bears by 7 5.6% Exactly Bears by 14 4.7% Exactly Bears by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bears +5.5 Home field Bears +2.3 Quarterbacks Packers +1.1 Last season Packers +0.2
Bills by 1.5 · 54% to win
Ours: Bills by 1.5 Bills win 54% Broncos win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bills win by Broncos win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 54.4% Broncos win 45.6% Middle 50%: Bills by 10 to Broncos by 7 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 24 to Broncos by 21 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 28 to Broncos by 25 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.2% Exactly Broncos by 3 7.8% Exactly Bills by 7 5.1% Exactly Broncos by 7 4.6% Exactly Bills by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bills +2.5 Home field Broncos +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +1.3
Seahawks by 3.0 · 59% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 3.0 Rams win 41% Seahawks win 59% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Rams win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Rams win 41.0% Seahawks win 59.0% Middle 50%: Rams by 6 to Seahawks by 12 50% Middle 90%: Rams by 19 to Seahawks by 25 90% Middle 95%: Rams by 24 to Seahawks by 29 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.3% Exactly Rams by 3 7.5% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.3% Exactly Rams by 7 4.2% Exactly Seahawks by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Seahawks +2.9 Home field Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +2.2 Last season Rams +0.1
Saints by 4.3 · 63% to win
Ours: Saints by 4.3 Cardinals win 37% Saints win 63% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cardinals win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cardinals win 37.1% Saints win 62.9% Middle 50%: Cardinals by 5 to Saints by 14 50% Middle 90%: Cardinals by 18 to Saints by 27 90% Middle 95%: Cardinals by 22 to Saints by 31 95% Exactly Saints by 3 8.3% Exactly Cardinals by 3 7.1% Exactly Saints by 7 5.5% Exactly Saints by 14 4.3% Exactly Saints by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Saints +2.3 Last season Saints +1.2 This season, adjusted for luck Saints +0.9 Quarterbacks Cardinals +0.1
Steelers by 2.0 · 56% to win
Ours: Steelers by 2.0 Panthers win 44% Steelers win 56% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Panthers win by Steelers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Panthers win 43.9% Steelers win 56.1% Middle 50%: Panthers by 7 to Steelers by 11 50% Middle 90%: Panthers by 20 to Steelers by 24 90% Middle 95%: Panthers by 24 to Steelers by 28 95% Exactly Steelers by 3 8.3% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.7% Exactly Steelers by 7 5.2% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.4% Exactly Steelers by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Steelers +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Panthers +0.7 Last season Steelers +0.6 Quarterbacks Panthers +0.1
Bengals by 0.7 · 52% to win
Ours: Bengals by 0.7 Bengals win 52% Colts win 48% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bengals win by Colts win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bengals win 52.2% Colts win 47.8% Middle 50%: Bengals by 10 to Colts by 8 50% Middle 90%: Bengals by 23 to Colts by 21 90% Middle 95%: Bengals by 27 to Colts by 25 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.2% Exactly Colts by 3 8.0% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.0% Exactly Colts by 7 4.7% Exactly Bengals by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bengals +3.8 Home field Colts +2.3 Last season Colts +1.6 Quarterbacks Bengals +0.9
Ravens by 9.7 · 77% to win
Ours: Ravens by 9.7 Browns win 23% Ravens win 77% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Browns win by Ravens win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Browns win 23.3% Ravens win 76.7% Middle 50%: Ravens by 2 to Ravens by 18 50% Middle 90%: Browns by 13 to Ravens by 31 90% Middle 95%: Browns by 17 to Ravens by 35 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 7.3% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.5% Exactly Browns by 3 5.3% Exactly Ravens by 14 5.3% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Ravens +2.7 This season, adjusted for luck Ravens +2.4 Home field Ravens +2.3 Last season Ravens +2.3
Dolphins by 0.1 · 50% to win
Ours: Dolphins by 0.1 Chargers win 50% Dolphins win 50% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chargers win by Dolphins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 49.7% Dolphins win 50.3% Middle 50%: Chargers by 9 to Dolphins by 9 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 22 to Dolphins by 22 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 26 to Dolphins by 27 95% Exactly Dolphins by 3 8.1% Exactly Chargers by 3 8.1% Exactly Dolphins by 7 4.9% Exactly Chargers by 7 4.8% Exactly Dolphins by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Dolphins +2.3 Last season Chargers +1.7 This season, adjusted for luck Chargers +0.4 Quarterbacks Chargers +0.1
Patriots by 2.4 · 57% to win
Ours: Patriots by 2.4 Patriots win 57% Jets win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Patriots win by Jets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Patriots win 57.3% Jets win 42.7% Middle 50%: Patriots by 11 to Jets by 7 50% Middle 90%: Patriots by 24 to Jets by 20 90% Middle 95%: Patriots by 28 to Jets by 24 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.3% Exactly Jets by 3 7.6% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.3% Exactly Jets by 7 4.3% Exactly Patriots by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Patriots +4.8 Home field Jets +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Jets +1.1 Quarterbacks Patriots +1.1
Buccaneers by 0.1 · 50% to win
Ours: Buccaneers by 0.1 Buccaneers win 50% Falcons win 50% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Buccaneers win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Buccaneers win 50.4% Falcons win 49.6% Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 9 to Falcons by 9 50% Middle 90%: Buccaneers by 22 to Falcons by 22 90% Middle 95%: Buccaneers by 27 to Falcons by 26 95% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 8.1% Exactly Falcons by 3 8.1% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 4.9% Exactly Falcons by 7 4.8% Exactly Buccaneers by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Buccaneers +2.4 Home field Falcons +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Buccaneers +0.5 Last season Falcons +0.4
Vikings by 6.0 · 67% to win
Ours: Vikings by 6.0 Commanders win 33% Vikings win 67% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Commanders win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Commanders win 32.6% Vikings win 67.4% Middle 50%: Commanders by 3 to Vikings by 15 50% Middle 90%: Commanders by 16 to Vikings by 28 90% Middle 95%: Commanders by 21 to Vikings by 32 95% Exactly Vikings by 3 8.1% Exactly Commanders by 3 6.6% Exactly Vikings by 7 5.5% Exactly Vikings by 14 4.6% Exactly Vikings by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Vikings +3.2 Home field Vikings +2.3 Last season Vikings +1.0 Quarterbacks Commanders +0.5
Raiders by 8.7 · 74% to win
Ours: Raiders by 8.7 Titans win 26% Raiders win 74% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Titans win by Raiders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 25.5% Raiders win 74.5% Middle 50%: Titans by 1 to Raiders by 18 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 14 to Raiders by 31 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 18 to Raiders by 35 95% Exactly Raiders by 3 7.6% Exactly Titans by 3 5.7% Exactly Raiders by 7 5.5% Exactly Raiders by 14 5.1% Exactly Raiders by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Raiders +3.9 Home field Raiders +2.3 Quarterbacks Raiders +1.9 Last season Raiders +0.6
Chiefs by 1.5 · 55% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 1.5 49ers win 45% Chiefs win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← 49ers win by Chiefs win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance 49ers win 45.5% Chiefs win 54.5% Middle 50%: 49ers by 7 to Chiefs by 10 50% Middle 90%: 49ers by 21 to Chiefs by 24 90% Middle 95%: 49ers by 25 to Chiefs by 28 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.2% Exactly 49ers by 3 7.8% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.1% Exactly 49ers by 7 4.6% Exactly Chiefs by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Chiefs +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +0.5 This season, adjusted for luck 49ers +0.4
Jaguars by 1.2 · 54% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 1.2 Jaguars win 54% Cowboys win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jaguars win by Cowboys win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 53.6% Cowboys win 46.4% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 10 to Cowboys by 7 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 24 to Cowboys by 21 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 28 to Cowboys by 25 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.2% Exactly Cowboys by 3 7.9% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.1% Exactly Cowboys by 7 4.6% Exactly Jaguars by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Cowboys +2.3 Last season Jaguars +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Jaguars +2.1 Quarterbacks Cowboys +0.8
Lions by 7.7 · 72% to win
Ours: Lions by 7.7 Giants win 28% Lions win 72% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Giants win by Lions win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Giants win 28.0% Lions win 72.0% Middle 50%: Giants by 3 to Lions by 17 50% Middle 90%: Giants by 14 to Lions by 30 90% Middle 95%: Giants by 18 to Lions by 34 95% Exactly Lions by 3 7.8% Exactly Giants by 3 6.0% Exactly Lions by 7 5.6% Exactly Lions by 14 5.0% Exactly Lions by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Lions +2.4 Home field Lions +2.3 Quarterbacks Lions +2.1 This season, adjusted for luck Lions +0.9
Texans at 
Eagles 
