Week 11 · November 19–23 · 8 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 11 An early look at week 11, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 8 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Texans by 4.8 · 64% to win
Ours: Texans by 4.8 Colts win 36% Texans win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Colts win by Texans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 36.0% Texans win 64.0% Middle 50%: Colts by 4 to Texans by 14 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 17 to Texans by 27 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 21 to Texans by 31 95% Exactly Texans by 3 8.2% Exactly Colts by 3 7.0% Exactly Texans by 7 5.5% Exactly Texans by 14 4.4% Exactly Texans by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Texans +2.3 This season, luck taken out Texans +1.4 Last season Texans +1.1 Quarterbacks Colts +0.1
Chiefs by 11.6 · 81% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 11.6 Cardinals win 19% Chiefs win 81% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Cardinals win by Chiefs win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cardinals win 19.1% Chiefs win 80.9% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 3 to Chiefs by 21 50% Middle 90%: Cardinals by 10 to Chiefs by 34 90% Middle 95%: Cardinals by 14 to Chiefs by 38 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 6.8% Exactly Chiefs by 14 5.5% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.3% Exactly Cardinals by 3 4.6% Exactly Chiefs by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Chiefs +5.3 Last season Chiefs +2.4 Home field Chiefs +2.3 Quarterbacks Chiefs +1.5
Ravens by 2.1 · 56% to win
Ours: Ravens by 2.1 Ravens win 56% Panthers win 44% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Ravens win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ravens win 56.3% Panthers win 43.7% Middle 50%: Ravens by 11 to Panthers by 7 50% Middle 90%: Ravens by 24 to Panthers by 20 90% Middle 95%: Ravens by 28 to Panthers by 24 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.3% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.7% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.2% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.4% Exactly Ravens by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Panthers +2.3 Quarterbacks Ravens +1.8 This season, luck taken out Ravens +1.5 Last season Ravens +1.1
Jaguars by 4.7 · 64% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 4.7 Jaguars win 64% Giants win 36% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jaguars win by Giants win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 63.7% Giants win 36.3% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 14 to Giants by 4 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 27 to Giants by 17 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 31 to Giants by 21 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.2% Exactly Giants by 3 7.0% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.5% Exactly Jaguars by 14 4.3% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jaguars +3.7 Last season Jaguars +2.7 Home field Giants +2.3 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.6
Bills by 13.8 · 85% to win
Ours: Bills by 13.8 Dolphins win 15% Bills win 85% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Dolphins win by Bills win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Dolphins win 15.0% Bills win 85.0% Middle 50%: Bills by 5 to Bills by 23 50% Middle 90%: Dolphins by 8 to Bills by 35 90% Middle 95%: Dolphins by 13 to Bills by 40 95% Exactly Bills by 3 6.0% Exactly Bills by 14 5.5% Exactly Bills by 7 4.9% Exactly Bills by 10 4.3% Exactly Bills by 17 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bills +6.3 Last season Bills +3.3 Home field Bills +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +1.9
Bears by 7.6 · 72% to win
Ours: Bears by 7.6 Saints win 28% Bears win 72% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Saints win by Bears win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Saints win 28.2% Bears win 71.8% Middle 50%: Saints by 3 to Bears by 17 50% Middle 90%: Saints by 14 to Bears by 29 90% Middle 95%: Saints by 18 to Bears by 34 95% Exactly Bears by 3 7.8% Exactly Saints by 3 6.1% Exactly Bears by 7 5.6% Exactly Bears by 14 5.0% Exactly Bears by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bears +3.6 Home field Bears +2.3 Last season Bears +0.9 Quarterbacks Bears +0.7
Lions by 7.4 · 71% to win
Ours: Lions by 7.4 Buccaneers win 29% Lions win 71% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Buccaneers win by Lions win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Buccaneers win 28.7% Lions win 71.3% Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 3 to Lions by 17 50% Middle 90%: Buccaneers by 14 to Lions by 29 90% Middle 95%: Buccaneers by 19 to Lions by 34 95% Exactly Lions by 3 7.9% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 6.1% Exactly Lions by 7 5.6% Exactly Lions by 14 4.9% Exactly Lions by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Lions +2.3 Last season Lions +2.1 Quarterbacks Lions +1.9 This season, luck taken out Lions +1.0
Cowboys by 10.3 · 78% to win
Ours: Cowboys by 10.3 Titans win 22% Cowboys win 78% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Titans win by Cowboys win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 22.0% Cowboys win 78.0% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 20 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 12 to Cowboys by 32 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 16 to Cowboys by 37 95% Exactly Cowboys by 3 7.2% Exactly Cowboys by 7 5.4% Exactly Cowboys by 14 5.3% Exactly Titans by 3 5.1% Exactly Cowboys by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Cowboys +3.1 This season, luck taken out Cowboys +2.6 Home field Cowboys +2.3 Last season Cowboys +2.2
Chargers by 2.5 · 58% to win
Ours: Chargers by 2.5 Jets win 42% Chargers win 58% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jets win by Chargers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 42.4% Chargers win 57.6% Middle 50%: Jets by 7 to Chargers by 12 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 20 to Chargers by 24 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 24 to Chargers by 28 95% Exactly Chargers by 3 8.3% Exactly Jets by 3 7.6% Exactly Chargers by 7 5.3% Exactly Jets by 7 4.3% Exactly Chargers by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jets +3.3 Last season Chargers +3.1 Home field Chargers +2.3 Quarterbacks Chargers +0.4
Broncos by 4.6 · 64% to win
Ours: Broncos by 4.6 Raiders win 36% Broncos win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Raiders win by Broncos win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Raiders win 36.3% Broncos win 63.7% Middle 50%: Raiders by 4 to Broncos by 14 50% Middle 90%: Raiders by 17 to Broncos by 27 90% Middle 95%: Raiders by 21 to Broncos by 31 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.2% Exactly Raiders by 3 7.1% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.5% Exactly Broncos by 14 4.3% Exactly Broncos by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Broncos +4.3 This season, luck taken out Raiders +2.4 Home field Broncos +2.3 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.4
Eagles by 3.6 · 61% to win
Ours: Eagles by 3.6 Steelers win 39% Eagles win 61% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Steelers win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Steelers win 39.4% Eagles win 60.6% Middle 50%: Steelers by 6 to Eagles by 13 50% Middle 90%: Steelers by 18 to Eagles by 26 90% Middle 95%: Steelers by 23 to Eagles by 30 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.3% Exactly Steelers by 3 7.4% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.4% Exactly Eagles by 14 4.1% Exactly Steelers by 7 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Eagles +2.3 Last season Eagles +0.9 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.9 This season, luck taken out Steelers +0.6
49ers by 6.2 · 68% to win
Ours: 49ers by 6.2 Vikings win 32% 49ers win 68% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Vikings win by 49ers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Vikings win 32.0% 49ers win 68.0% Middle 50%: Vikings by 3 to 49ers by 15 50% Middle 90%: Vikings by 16 to 49ers by 28 90% Middle 95%: Vikings by 20 to 49ers by 32 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 8.1% Exactly Vikings by 3 6.6% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.6% Exactly 49ers by 14 4.7% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out 49ers +2.7 Quarterbacks 49ers +1.9 Last season 49ers +1.0 Home field 49ers +0.6
Bengals by 1.3 · 54% to win
Ours: Bengals by 1.3 Bengals win 54% Commanders win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bengals win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bengals win 54.0% Commanders win 46.0% Middle 50%: Bengals by 10 to Commanders by 7 50% Middle 90%: Bengals by 24 to Commanders by 21 90% Middle 95%: Bengals by 28 to Commanders by 25 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.2% Exactly Commanders by 3 7.9% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.1% Exactly Commanders by 7 4.6% Exactly Bengals by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bengals +2.8 Home field Commanders +2.3 Quarterbacks Bengals +0.6 Last season Bengals +0.2
Colts at 
Texans 
