Week 15 · December 17–21 · 12 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 15 An early look at week 15, from what each team’s play has been worth so far adjusted for luck and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 12 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
49ers by 7.3 · 71% to win
Ours: 49ers by 7.3 49ers win 71% Chargers win 29% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← 49ers win by Chargers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance 49ers win 70.9% Chargers win 29.1% Middle 50%: 49ers by 17 to Chargers by 3 50% Middle 90%: 49ers by 29 to Chargers by 14 90% Middle 95%: 49ers by 34 to Chargers by 19 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 7.9% Exactly Chargers by 3 6.2% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.6% Exactly 49ers by 14 4.9% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck 49ers +7.8 Home field Chargers +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +1.8 Last season 49ers +0.1
Seahawks by 2.1 · 56% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 2.1 Seahawks win 56% Eagles win 44% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Seahawks win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Seahawks win 56.2% Eagles win 43.8% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 11 to Eagles by 7 50% Middle 90%: Seahawks by 24 to Eagles by 20 90% Middle 95%: Seahawks by 28 to Eagles by 24 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.3% Exactly Eagles by 3 7.7% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.2% Exactly Eagles by 7 4.4% Exactly Seahawks by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Seahawks +3.6 Home field Eagles +2.3 Last season Seahawks +1.9 Quarterbacks Eagles +1.1
Bills by 4.7 · 64% to win
Ours: Bills by 4.7 Bears win 36% Bills win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bears win by Bills win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bears win 36.2% Bills win 63.8% Middle 50%: Bears by 4 to Bills by 14 50% Middle 90%: Bears by 17 to Bills by 27 90% Middle 95%: Bears by 21 to Bills by 31 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.2% Exactly Bears by 3 7.0% Exactly Bills by 7 5.5% Exactly Bills by 14 4.4% Exactly Bills by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bills +2.3 Last season Bills +1.7 Quarterbacks Bills +1.4 This season, adjusted for luck Bears +0.8
Commanders by 3.6 · 61% to win
Ours: Commanders by 3.6 Falcons win 39% Commanders win 61% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Falcons win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Falcons win 39.1% Commanders win 60.9% Middle 50%: Falcons by 6 to Commanders by 13 50% Middle 90%: Falcons by 18 to Commanders by 26 90% Middle 95%: Falcons by 23 to Commanders by 30 95% Exactly Commanders by 3 8.3% Exactly Falcons by 3 7.3% Exactly Commanders by 7 5.4% Exactly Commanders by 14 4.1% Exactly Falcons by 7 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Commanders +2.5 Home field Commanders +2.3 Last season Falcons +1.0 This season, adjusted for luck Falcons +0.2
Ravens by 2.4 · 57% to win
Ours: Ravens by 2.4 Ravens win 57% Steelers win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Ravens win by Steelers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ravens win 57.2% Steelers win 42.8% Middle 50%: Ravens by 11 to Steelers by 7 50% Middle 90%: Ravens by 24 to Steelers by 20 90% Middle 95%: Ravens by 28 to Steelers by 24 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.3% Exactly Steelers by 3 7.6% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.2% Exactly Steelers by 7 4.4% Exactly Ravens by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Steelers +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Ravens +2.2 Quarterbacks Ravens +1.9 Last season Ravens +0.6
Panthers by 0.7 · 52% to win
Ours: Panthers by 0.7 Bengals win 48% Panthers win 52% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bengals win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bengals win 48.0% Panthers win 52.0% Middle 50%: Bengals by 8 to Panthers by 10 50% Middle 90%: Bengals by 21 to Panthers by 23 90% Middle 95%: Bengals by 26 to Panthers by 27 95% Exactly Panthers by 3 8.2% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.0% Exactly Panthers by 7 5.0% Exactly Bengals by 7 4.7% Exactly Panthers by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Panthers +2.3 Quarterbacks Bengals +1.3 This season, adjusted for luck Bengals +1.1 Last season Panthers +0.7
Giants by 4.1 · 62% to win
Ours: Giants by 4.1 Browns win 38% Giants win 62% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Browns win by Giants win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Browns win 37.9% Giants win 62.1% Middle 50%: Browns by 5 to Giants by 14 50% Middle 90%: Browns by 18 to Giants by 26 90% Middle 95%: Browns by 22 to Giants by 31 95% Exactly Giants by 3 8.3% Exactly Browns by 3 7.2% Exactly Giants by 7 5.4% Exactly Giants by 14 4.2% Exactly Giants by 10 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Giants +2.3 Quarterbacks Giants +1.2 Last season Giants +0.6
Colts by 1.9 · 56% to win
Ours: Colts by 1.9 Colts win 56% Titans win 44% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Colts win by Titans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 55.7% Titans win 44.3% Middle 50%: Colts by 11 to Titans by 7 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 24 to Titans by 20 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 28 to Titans by 24 95% Exactly Colts by 3 8.3% Exactly Titans by 3 7.8% Exactly Colts by 7 5.2% Exactly Titans by 7 4.5% Exactly Colts by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Colts +3.2 Home field Titans +2.3 Quarterbacks Colts +1.8 This season, adjusted for luck Titans +0.8
Jaguars by 2.5 · 57% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 2.5 Jaguars win 57% Texans win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jaguars win by Texans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 57.4% Texans win 42.6% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 12 to Texans by 7 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 24 to Texans by 20 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 28 to Texans by 24 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.3% Exactly Texans by 3 7.6% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.3% Exactly Texans by 7 4.3% Exactly Jaguars by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Jaguars +4.1 Home field Texans +2.3 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.6 Last season Jaguars +0.1
Packers by 7.3 · 71% to win
Ours: Packers by 7.3 Dolphins win 29% Packers win 71% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Dolphins win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Dolphins win 29.2% Packers win 70.8% Middle 50%: Dolphins by 3 to Packers by 17 50% Middle 90%: Dolphins by 14 to Packers by 29 90% Middle 95%: Dolphins by 19 to Packers by 34 95% Exactly Packers by 3 7.9% Exactly Dolphins by 3 6.2% Exactly Packers by 7 5.6% Exactly Packers by 14 4.9% Exactly Packers by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Packers +2.3 Last season Packers +1.8 Quarterbacks Packers +1.6 This season, adjusted for luck Packers +1.5
Buccaneers by 2.3 · 57% to win
Ours: Buccaneers by 2.3 Saints win 43% Buccaneers win 57% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Saints win by Buccaneers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Saints win 43.2% Buccaneers win 56.8% Middle 50%: Saints by 7 to Buccaneers by 11 50% Middle 90%: Saints by 20 to Buccaneers by 24 90% Middle 95%: Saints by 24 to Buccaneers by 28 95% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 8.3% Exactly Saints by 3 7.7% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 5.2% Exactly Saints by 7 4.4% Exactly Buccaneers by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Buccaneers +2.3 Quarterbacks Buccaneers +0.5 Last season Saints +0.3 This season, adjusted for luck Saints +0.3
Cardinals by 2.1 · 56% to win
Ours: Cardinals by 2.1 Jets win 44% Cardinals win 56% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jets win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 43.7% Cardinals win 56.3% Middle 50%: Jets by 7 to Cardinals by 11 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 20 to Cardinals by 24 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 24 to Cardinals by 28 95% Exactly Cardinals by 3 8.3% Exactly Jets by 3 7.7% Exactly Cardinals by 7 5.2% Exactly Jets by 7 4.4% Exactly Cardinals by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Cardinals +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Jets +1.2 Last season Cardinals +0.8 Quarterbacks Cardinals +0.2
Rams by 4.7 · 64% to win
Ours: Rams by 4.7 Cowboys win 36% Rams win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cowboys win by Rams win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cowboys win 36.1% Rams win 63.9% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 4 to Rams by 14 50% Middle 90%: Cowboys by 17 to Rams by 27 90% Middle 95%: Cowboys by 21 to Rams by 31 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.2% Exactly Cowboys by 3 7.0% Exactly Rams by 7 5.5% Exactly Rams by 14 4.4% Exactly Rams by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Rams +3.5 Home field Rams +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Cowboys +1.4 Quarterbacks Rams +0.3
even · 50% to win
Ours: a tie Broncos win 50% Raiders win 50% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by Raiders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 49.9% Raiders win 50.1% Middle 50%: Broncos by 9 to Raiders by 9 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 22 to Raiders by 22 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 27 to Raiders by 27 95% Exactly Raiders by 3 8.1% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.1% Exactly Raiders by 7 4.9% Exactly Broncos by 7 4.9% Exactly Raiders by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Broncos +4.3 This season, adjusted for luck Raiders +2.4 Home field Raiders +2.3 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.4
Lions by 0.3 · 51% to win
Ours: Lions by 0.3 Lions win 51% Vikings win 49% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Lions win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Lions win 50.8% Vikings win 49.2% Middle 50%: Lions by 10 to Vikings by 8 50% Middle 90%: Lions by 22 to Vikings by 21 90% Middle 95%: Lions by 27 to Vikings by 26 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.1% Exactly Vikings by 3 8.0% Exactly Lions by 7 4.9% Exactly Vikings by 7 4.8% Exactly Lions by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Vikings +2.3 Quarterbacks Lions +2.2 Last season Lions +1.8 This season, adjusted for luck Vikings +1.4
Chiefs by 6.5 · 69% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 6.5 Patriots win 31% Chiefs win 69% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Patriots win by Chiefs win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Patriots win 31.0% Chiefs win 69.0% Middle 50%: Patriots by 3 to Chiefs by 16 50% Middle 90%: Patriots by 16 to Chiefs by 28 90% Middle 95%: Patriots by 20 to Chiefs by 32 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.0% Exactly Patriots by 3 6.4% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.6% Exactly Chiefs by 14 4.8% Exactly Chiefs by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Chiefs +5.3 Home field Chiefs +2.3 Last season Patriots +1.6 Quarterbacks Chiefs +0.6
49ers at 
Chargers 
