2026 NFL season · after Week 3
Kicking luck, 2026: who the kicks went for
Kicks were worth +0.48 wins to the Colts in 2026 so far, more than to any other team: their own kickers made 1.8 more than expected, their opponents 0.2 more than expected. The Texans lost the most to kicks, −0.52 wins.
Each field goal has an expected make rate from its distance, the wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record (long kicks especially). Made above that is luck; so is an opponent missing a kick he usually makes. None of it carries over: field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’. Luck in wins weighs each kick by the moment, so a missed 45-yarder at the gun counts for far more than one in the second quarter, and adds extra points. Regular season only. Methodology
Kicking luck by team, 2026
| # | Team | Field goals | Above expected | Opponents’ field goals | Above expected | Luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colts | 8 of 8 100% | +1.8 | 7 of 8 88% | +0.2 | +0.48 |
| 2 |  Titans | 3 of 4 75% | −0.3 | 8 of 9 89% | +0.6 | +0.30 |
| 3 |  Ravens | 5 of 6 83% | +0.6 | 7 of 8 88% | +0.3 | +0.30 |
| 4 |  Lions | 3 of 3 100% | +0.1 | 2 of 3 67% | −0.4 | +0.27 |
| 5 |  Raiders | 6 of 6 100% | +0.9 | 2 of 4 50% | −1.4 | +0.26 |
| 6 |  Rams | 4 of 5 80% | −0.3 | 4 of 6 67% | −1.0 | +0.21 |
| 7 |  Vikings | 7 of 7 100% | +1.3 | 7 of 8 88% | +0.2 | +0.20 |
| 8 |  Bengals | 8 of 8 100% | +1.7 | 7 of 8 88% | +0.2 | +0.17 |
| 9 |  49ers | 3 of 4 75% | −0.2 | 5 of 6 83% | −0.2 | +0.10 |
| 10 |  Falcons | 5 of 8 63% | −1.7 | 4 of 6 67% | −1.3 | +0.10 |
| 11 |  Bills | 4 of 4 100% | +0.3 | 5 of 6 83% | −0.4 | +0.09 |
| 12 |  Giants | 6 of 6 100% | +0.6 | 0 of 2 0% | −1.4 | +0.05 |
| 13 |  Panthers | 7 of 7 100% | +1.0 | 4 of 5 80% | −0.1 | +0.04 |
| 14 |  Steelers | 6 of 8 75% | −0.7 | 6 of 9 67% | −1.3 | +0.04 |
| 15 |  Commanders | 5 of 7 71% | −0.2 | 5 of 5 100% | +0.9 | +0.02 |
| 16 |  Patriots | 5 of 7 71% | −0.9 | 3 of 5 60% | −0.5 | −0.02 |
| 17 |  Packers | 5 of 6 83% | −0.2 | 4 of 4 100% | +0.3 | −0.03 |
| 18 |  Buccaneers | 9 of 9 100% | +1.3 | 10 of 10 100% | +1.9 | −0.03 |
| 19 |  Cardinals | 7 of 8 88% | +0.4 | 2 of 2 100% | +0.4 | −0.04 |
| 20 |  Eagles | 2 of 2 100% | +0.5 | 5 of 6 83% | +0.1 | −0.04 |
| 21 |  Seahawks | 4 of 4 100% | +0.5 | 3 of 3 100% | +0.8 | −0.05 |
| 22 |  Browns | 6 of 6 100% | +0.9 | 10 of 10 100% | +1.5 | −0.06 |
| 23 |  Jaguars | 4 of 6 67% | −0.3 | 5 of 6 83% | −0.4 | −0.08 |
| 24 |  Chiefs | 6 of 8 75% | −1.0 | 5 of 5 100% | +0.7 | −0.13 |
| 25 |  Broncos | 3 of 4 75% | −0.5 | 7 of 8 88% | +0.1 | −0.13 |
| 26 |  Dolphins | 5 of 7 71% | −1.3 | 3 of 4 75% | −0.4 | −0.17 |
| 27 |  Jets | 5 of 6 83% | +0.1 | 4 of 4 100% | +0.3 | −0.22 |
| 28 |  Chargers | 3 of 5 60% | −1.5 | 6 of 7 86% | +0.4 | −0.23 |
| 29 |  Saints | 4 of 5 80% | +0.1 | 5 of 6 83% | −0.1 | −0.24 |
| 30 |  Bears | 4 of 5 80% | −0.3 | 4 of 4 100% | +0.6 | −0.26 |
| 31 |  Cowboys | 6 of 7 86% | −0.2 | 4 of 5 80% | −0.1 | −0.39 |
| 32 |  Texans | 4 of 5 80% | −0.1 | 9 of 9 100% | +1.8 | −0.52 |
Field goals include blocked kicks. Above expected: made minus the sum of each kick’s make probability. For opponents, above expected is bad luck for the team. Net field goals above expected, the Raiders lead with +2.3. Luck in wins also counts extra points and is net of the opponent’s.
Questions
Which NFL team had the most kicking luck in 2026?
The Colts: field goals and extra points, theirs and their opponents’, were worth +0.48 wins to them so far, weighted by the moment each kick came. The Texans had the least, −0.52.
Which team's opponents missed the most field goals in 2026?
The Giants’ opponents made 0 of 2 field goals, 1.4 fewer than expected for those distances, conditions and kickers.
Is kicking luck or skill?
Both, and the expectation separates them: it knows each kick’s distance, wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record, so a good kicker making his kicks counts as skill. What’s left doesn’t carry over. Field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’ (192 team-seasons since 2019).
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