luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2021 NFL season · final

Kicking luck, 2021: who the kicks went for

Kicks were worth +1.06 wins to the Ravens in 2021, more than to any other team: their own kickers made 3.4 more than expected, their opponents 3.1 fewer than expected. The Lions lost the most to kicks, −1.15 wins.

Each field goal has an expected make rate from its distance, the wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record (long kicks especially). Made above that is luck; so is an opponent missing a kick he usually makes. None of it carries over: field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’. Luck in wins weighs each kick by the moment, so a missed 45-yarder at the gun counts for far more than one in the second quarter, and adds extra points. Regular season only. Methodology

Kicking luck by team, 2021

#TeamField goalsAbove expectedOpponents’ field goalsAbove expectedLuck in wins
1 Ravens 35 of 37 95% +3.4 21 of 28 75% −3.1 +1.06
2 Steelers 36 of 40 90% +1.9 34 of 38 89% +0.7 +1.01
3 Buccaneers 25 of 31 81% −2.3 27 of 31 87% −0.6 +0.66
4 Bengals 29 of 34 85% +1.3 23 of 31 74% −3.4 +0.64
5 Raiders 40 of 43 93% +2.4 27 of 33 82% +0.5 +0.64
6 Panthers 26 of 29 90% +1.8 32 of 37 86% +0.8 +0.53
7 Jets 21 of 27 78% −1.9 36 of 39 92% +1.6 +0.43
8 Falcons 27 of 29 93% +1.3 26 of 28 93% +1.2 +0.34
9 Cardinals 30 of 37 81% −0.6 23 of 28 82% −0.6 +0.30
10 Jaguars 21 of 27 78% −1.8 32 of 36 89% +1.3 +0.26
11 Patriots 36 of 39 92% +2.8 22 of 33 67% −5.1 +0.22
12 Eagles 30 of 33 91% +1.6 21 of 24 88% +0.4 +0.15
13 Texans 21 of 27 78% −1.2 28 of 32 88% −0.8 +0.14
14 Chiefs 28 of 32 88% +1.3 20 of 24 83% −1.0 +0.13
15 Giants 29 of 33 88% +0.7 34 of 38 89% +0.2 +0.11
16 Seahawks 17 of 23 74% −2.5 27 of 33 82% −1.7 +0.03
17 Cowboys 29 of 35 83% −0.4 29 of 35 83% −0.4 0.00
18 Packers 25 of 34 74% −4.8 19 of 22 86% +0.9 −0.02
19 Browns 16 of 22 73% −1.9 26 of 27 96% +3.2 −0.02
20 Broncos 26 of 31 84% −0.2 24 of 31 77% −0.8 −0.10
21 Bills 28 of 32 88% −0.2 21 of 23 91% +1.3 −0.24
22 Saints 25 of 30 83% −1.5 31 of 38 82% −1.2 −0.24
23 Colts 29 of 35 83% −1.0 22 of 27 81% −1.2 −0.28
24 Washington 28 of 33 85% −0.2 27 of 29 93% +1.6 −0.28
25 49ers 27 of 32 84% +0.8 21 of 27 78% −1.2 −0.28
26 Rams 32 of 34 94% +2.1 30 of 34 88% +0.8 −0.31
27 Titans 26 of 32 81% −1.6 31 of 38 82% −1.2 −0.48
28 Dolphins 23 of 31 74% −2.6 31 of 37 84% +0.1 −0.64
29 Bears 26 of 30 87% +0.3 27 of 30 90% +1.8 −0.75
30 Vikings 33 of 38 87% +0.4 34 of 40 85% +0.2 −0.77
31 Chargers 24 of 27 89% 0.0 32 of 35 91% +2.0 −1.09
32 Lions 26 of 30 87% +0.3 36 of 41 88% +1.7 −1.15

Field goals include blocked kicks. Above expected: made minus the sum of each kick’s make probability. For opponents, above expected is bad luck for the team. Net field goals above expected, the Patriots lead with +7.9. Luck in wins also counts extra points and is net of the opponent’s.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most kicking luck in 2021?

The Ravens: field goals and extra points, theirs and their opponents’, were worth +1.06 wins to them, weighted by the moment each kick came. The Lions had the least, −1.15.

Which team's opponents missed the most field goals in 2021?

The Patriots’ opponents made 22 of 33 field goals, 5.1 fewer than expected for those distances, conditions and kickers.

Is kicking luck or skill?

Both, and the expectation separates them: it knows each kick’s distance, wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record, so a good kicker making his kicks counts as skill. What’s left doesn’t carry over. Field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’ (192 team-seasons since 2019).

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