2021 season · final
Kansas City Chiefs, 2021: game by game
The Chiefs went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.5.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Browns | W 33–29 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 2 | @ Ravens | L 35–36 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 3 | vs Chargers | L 24–30 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 4 | @ Eagles | W 42–30 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 5 | vs Bills | L 20–38 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 6 | @ Washington | W 31–13 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | L 3–27 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 8 | vs Giants | W 20–17 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 9 | vs Packers | W 13–7 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 10 | @ Raiders | W 41–14 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 11 | vs Cowboys | W 19–9 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 13 | vs Broncos | W 22–9 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 14 | vs Raiders | W 48–9 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 15 | @ Chargers | W 34–28 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 16 | vs Steelers | W 36–10 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 17 | @ Bengals | L 31–34 | 83% | −83 |
| Week 18 | @ Broncos | W 28–24 | 80% | +20 |
| Wild Card | vs Steelers | W 42–21 | 99% | +1 |
| Divisional round | vs Bills | W 42–36 | 70% | +30 |
| AFC Championship | vs Bengals | L 24–27 | 83% | −83 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.38 | +17.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.32 | +10.6 |
| Kicks | +0.13 | +10.8 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.13 | +8.4 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.24 | −11.0 |