Week 14 · December 10–14 · 11 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 14 An early look at week 14, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 11 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Patriots by 2.9 · 59% to win
Ours: Patriots by 2.9 Vikings win 41% Patriots win 59% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Vikings win by Patriots win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Vikings win 41.3% Patriots win 58.7% Middle 50%: Vikings by 6 to Patriots by 12 50% Middle 90%: Vikings by 19 to Patriots by 25 90% Middle 95%: Vikings by 24 to Patriots by 29 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.3% Exactly Vikings by 3 7.5% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.3% Exactly Vikings by 7 4.2% Exactly Patriots by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Vikings +3.0 Last season Patriots +2.7 Home field Patriots +2.3 Quarterbacks Patriots +0.8
Browns by 2.7 · 58% to win
Ours: Browns by 2.7 Falcons win 42% Browns win 58% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Falcons win by Browns win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Falcons win 41.8% Browns win 58.2% Middle 50%: Falcons by 7 to Browns by 12 50% Middle 90%: Falcons by 20 to Browns by 25 90% Middle 95%: Falcons by 24 to Browns by 28 95% Exactly Browns by 3 8.3% Exactly Falcons by 3 7.6% Exactly Browns by 7 5.3% Exactly Falcons by 7 4.3% Exactly Browns by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Browns +2.3 Last season Falcons +1.2 Quarterbacks Browns +1.0 This season, luck taken out Browns +0.6
Bears by 6.8 · 70% to win
Ours: Bears by 6.8 Bears win 70% Dolphins win 30% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Bears win by Dolphins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bears win 69.5% Dolphins win 30.5% Middle 50%: Bears by 16 to Dolphins by 3 50% Middle 90%: Bears by 28 to Dolphins by 15 90% Middle 95%: Bears by 33 to Dolphins by 20 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.0% Exactly Dolphins by 3 6.4% Exactly Bears by 7 5.6% Exactly Bears by 14 4.8% Exactly Bears by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bears +7.0 Home field Dolphins +2.3 Last season Bears +1.6 Quarterbacks Bears +0.5
Broncos by 3.3 · 60% to win
Ours: Broncos by 3.3 Broncos win 60% Jets win 40% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by Jets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 59.8% Jets win 40.2% Middle 50%: Broncos by 13 to Jets by 6 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 25 to Jets by 19 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 29 to Jets by 23 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.3% Exactly Jets by 3 7.4% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.4% Exactly Jets by 7 4.1% Exactly Broncos by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Broncos +4.6 Home field Jets +2.3 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.9 This season, luck taken out Broncos +0.1
Texans by 0.7 · 52% to win
Ours: Texans by 0.7 Texans win 52% Commanders win 48% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 52.1% Commanders win 47.9% Middle 50%: Texans by 10 to Commanders by 8 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 23 to Commanders by 21 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 27 to Commanders by 25 95% Exactly Texans by 3 8.2% Exactly Commanders by 3 8.0% Exactly Texans by 7 5.0% Exactly Commanders by 7 4.7% Exactly Texans by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texans +3.0 Home field Commanders +2.3 This season, luck taken out Texans +0.4 Quarterbacks Commanders +0.4
Eagles by 4.7 · 64% to win
Ours: Eagles by 4.7 Colts win 36% Eagles win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Colts win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 36.2% Eagles win 63.8% Middle 50%: Colts by 4 to Eagles by 14 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 17 to Eagles by 27 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 21 to Eagles by 31 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.2% Exactly Colts by 3 7.0% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.5% Exactly Eagles by 14 4.4% Exactly Eagles by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Eagles +2.3 This season, luck taken out Eagles +1.3 Last season Eagles +0.6 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.4
Panthers by 3.1 · 59% to win
Ours: Panthers by 3.1 Saints win 41% Panthers win 59% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Saints win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Saints win 40.7% Panthers win 59.3% Middle 50%: Saints by 6 to Panthers by 13 50% Middle 90%: Saints by 19 to Panthers by 25 90% Middle 95%: Saints by 24 to Panthers by 29 95% Exactly Panthers by 3 8.3% Exactly Saints by 3 7.5% Exactly Panthers by 7 5.3% Exactly Saints by 7 4.2% Exactly Panthers by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Panthers +2.3 This season, luck taken out Panthers +0.7 Last season Panthers +0.1 Quarterbacks Panthers +0.1
Ravens by 7.6 · 72% to win
Ours: Ravens by 7.6 Buccaneers win 28% Ravens win 72% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Buccaneers win by Ravens win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Buccaneers win 28.3% Ravens win 71.7% Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 3 to Ravens by 17 50% Middle 90%: Buccaneers by 14 to Ravens by 29 90% Middle 95%: Buccaneers by 18 to Ravens by 34 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 7.8% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 6.1% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.6% Exactly Ravens by 14 4.9% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Ravens +2.5 Home field Ravens +2.3 Last season Ravens +1.5 Quarterbacks Ravens +1.3
Lions by 12.2 · 82% to win
Ours: Lions by 12.2 Titans win 18% Lions win 82% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Titans win by Lions win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 17.9% Lions win 82.1% Middle 50%: Lions by 3 to Lions by 21 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 10 to Lions by 34 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 14 to Lions by 38 95% Exactly Lions by 3 6.6% Exactly Lions by 14 5.5% Exactly Lions by 7 5.2% Exactly Lions by 10 4.4% Exactly Titans by 3 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Lions +4.1 Quarterbacks Lions +3.8 Home field Lions +2.3 This season, luck taken out Lions +1.9
Raiders by 5.4 · 66% to win
Ours: Raiders by 5.4 Chargers win 34% Raiders win 66% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chargers win by Raiders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 34.1% Raiders win 65.9% Middle 50%: Chargers by 3 to Raiders by 14 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 17 to Raiders by 28 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 21 to Raiders by 31 95% Exactly Raiders by 3 8.2% Exactly Chargers by 3 6.8% Exactly Raiders by 7 5.5% Exactly Raiders by 14 4.5% Exactly Raiders by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Raiders +5.8 Last season Chargers +2.8 Home field Raiders +2.3 Quarterbacks Raiders +0.2
Chiefs by 2.4 · 57% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 2.4 Chiefs win 57% Bengals win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chiefs win by Bengals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 57.3% Bengals win 42.7% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 11 to Bengals by 7 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 24 to Bengals by 20 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 28 to Bengals by 24 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.3% Exactly Bengals by 3 7.6% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.3% Exactly Bengals by 7 4.3% Exactly Chiefs by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Chiefs +2.7 Home field Bengals +2.3 Last season Chiefs +1.8 Quarterbacks Chiefs +0.3
49ers by 4.9 · 65% to win
Ours: 49ers by 4.9 Rams win 35% 49ers win 65% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Rams win by 49ers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Rams win 35.5% 49ers win 64.5% Middle 50%: Rams by 4 to 49ers by 14 50% Middle 90%: Rams by 17 to 49ers by 27 90% Middle 95%: Rams by 21 to 49ers by 31 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 8.2% Exactly Rams by 3 7.0% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.5% Exactly 49ers by 14 4.4% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out 49ers +4.8 Home field 49ers +2.3 Last season Rams +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +0.1
Seahawks by 8.8 · 75% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 8.8 Giants win 25% Seahawks win 75% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Giants win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Giants win 25.3% Seahawks win 74.7% Middle 50%: Giants by 1 to Seahawks by 18 50% Middle 90%: Giants by 14 to Seahawks by 31 90% Middle 95%: Giants by 17 to Seahawks by 35 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 7.5% Exactly Giants by 3 5.6% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.5% Exactly Seahawks by 14 5.1% Exactly Seahawks by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Seahawks +3.9 This season, luck taken out Seahawks +3.1 Home field Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Giants +0.6
Bills by 4.2 · 62% to win
Ours: Bills by 4.2 Bills win 62% Packers win 38% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bills win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 62.4% Packers win 37.6% Middle 50%: Bills by 14 to Packers by 5 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 26 to Packers by 18 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 31 to Packers by 22 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.3% Exactly Packers by 3 7.2% Exactly Bills by 7 5.4% Exactly Bills by 14 4.2% Exactly Bills by 10 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bills +4.7 Home field Packers +2.3 Last season Bills +1.5 Quarterbacks Bills +0.3
Jaguars by 8.5 · 74% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 8.5 Steelers win 26% Jaguars win 74% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Steelers win by Jaguars win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Steelers win 26.1% Jaguars win 73.9% Middle 50%: Steelers by 1 to Jaguars by 17 50% Middle 90%: Steelers by 14 to Jaguars by 31 90% Middle 95%: Steelers by 18 to Jaguars by 35 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 7.6% Exactly Steelers by 3 5.8% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.5% Exactly Jaguars by 14 5.1% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jaguars +3.6 Home field Jaguars +2.3 Last season Jaguars +1.6 Quarterbacks Jaguars +1.0
Vikings at 
Patriots 
